FPL Budget Picks: The Best FWD Under £9.5

Forwards under £9.5m: one of these picks isn't like the others

The sharpest number in this week's data: João Pedro projects for about 48 points over the next six gameweeks. The next-best forward in the whole under-£9.5m bracket — and there are 29 of them — projects for 25. That's not a gap, that's a different sport.

At £7.8m with a kind run starting at Everton away, Chelsea's man is the closest thing to a free square this price band offers. About 7 in 10 managers already own him, so he's no secret — but value isn't about being clever, it's about not being wrong. He's roughly 8 points a week by our numbers. Pay up.

The rest, one deadpan line each:

Thiago (BRE, £7.8m) — same price, half the points (about 25 over six), and Liverpool at home first. The fixtures ease after that, and only ~1 in 10 own him. The best of the rest, by a nose.

Barry (EVE, £5.7m) — proper enabler price, roughly 4 a week, but the fixtures are ugly, Chelsea up first. Fills a slot, funds your premiums.

Wissa (NEW, £6.3m) — proven, average fixtures, Villa at home. Fine. Just fine.

Calvert-Lewin (LEE, £6.0m) — ~2 in 10 own him, which is more than his tough run (United first) and 20-point projection justify.

Emersonn (IPS, £5.6m) — unproven, City away, horrible run. The romance pick. Ask who's coming off on 60.

Gonzalo (FUL, £6.1m) and N.Jackson (AVL, £6.6m) — both unproven starters. Minutes are the whole game at this price; neither guarantees them.

Evanilson (BOU, £6.0m) — starts, but the run's tough despite Sunderland at home first.

Strand Larsen (CRY, £6.0m) — here's your curiosity: proven, projects 25 over six, and virtually nobody owns him. The model ranks him tenth anyway, so don't get cute — but he's on the watchlist.

Havertz (ARS, £7.5m) — nice fixtures, 13 projected points. £7.5m for 2 a week is how teams die.

Kostoulas (BHA, £5.7m) — decent fixtures, Palace at home, honest enabler.

The call: João Pedro is the buy, no debate — the projection gap is embarrassing. If you can't stretch to him or already own him, Thiago is the best alternative once Liverpool's out of the way. Everyone else is squad filler. Buy accordingly.