Price changes · Sunday 18 October, GW8
FPL Price Changes — Tonight's Risers and Fallers
The read — 3 players rose and 7 fell in the most recent FPL price change. 2 players are on course to rise tonight and 7 to fall. Each row below shows how far a player's net transfers have travelled toward FPL's threshold, and where we project them at the window.
Called in advance: 585 of 586 confirmed changes over 53 nights, with 12 false alarms. Every night counted, misses included.
Closest to a price change tonight
Sorted by when we call the move, then by how far each player has travelled. Every percentage is the same measure: progress toward tonight's price change. As at Sun 18 Oct, 20:25 BST. Tap ☆ to watch a player.
Likely to rise
The full per-player figures are free in the Fantasy Football IQ app: https://play.fantasyfootballiq.app
Likely to fall
Progress is FPL's own meter against a threshold FPL does not publish, so 100% means "at the line". It is good for ordering who is closest and weaker for saying when. Wildcard and Free Hit transfers are invisible to everyone outside the game. Players under 0.5% owned are left out. Every accuracy figure we publish is on one page, misses included.
Your watchlist
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When prices change: between 13:00 and 02:00 UK — measured from 52 nights of our own polling, not assumed. Each move is bounded below by the last clean snapshot before it and above by the sweep that caught it, so the window is as tight as our polling can honestly make it.
Last night's confirmed price changes
3 rises and 7 falls, recorded by our own poller as they happened (Sun 18 Oct, 00:10 BST).
RC
JM
RC
AR
ID
AK
BT
OA
MT
RBAll the confirmed moves as a table
FPL Price Changes Sat 17 Oct 2026: Calafiori, Cherki and Manzambi Rise — Seven Fall Overnight
Cherki rose to £8.0m. The Manchester City midfielder is owned by 37.0% of managers. Same story, smaller scale. Owners gained 0.1m in value. Non-owners who were waiting have lost the £7.9m entry point.
Manzambi completes the risers. The Aston Villa midfielder moved from £5.9m to £6.0m. He is owned by 2.4% of managers. A rise at that ownership means his buyers moved fast.
The fallers. Diop dropped to £3.9m. He is owned by 11.1% of managers — the one faller with a meaningful share of the game holding him. A £3.9m Ipswich defender is a bench piece at best. Owners who bought at £4.0m have lost 0.1m if they sell now.
The rest fell from near-empty squads. Aina (NFO) is £4.3m, owned by 1.8% of managers. Robinson (FUL) is £4.4m, owned by 1.3%. Khusanov (MCI) is £5.3m, owned by 1.2%. Bentancur (£5.4m) and Tel (£5.6m) at Tottenham, and Touré (£5.7m) at Newcastle, are each owned by 0.1% of managers. Prices do not fall on players people are keeping.
The call. If you hold Calafiori or Cherki, hold — the rise is banked and selling hands back value. If you wanted either, the price is 0.1m worse today than yesterday; that alone is not a reason to buy or to skip. Diop owners should sell only if the squad needs the slot, not because of 0.1m. The six fallers under 2% ownership: let them go. Nobody is chasing them, and neither should you.
Previous nights
Every night’s confirmed price changes, with the round-up written the morning after. Every night has a dated page.
- Sat 17 Oct 2026 — Calafiori, Cherki and Manzambi Rise — Seven Fall Overnight
- Tue 13 Oct 2026 — Cherki up to £7.9m, four players drop
- Sun 11 Oct 2026 — Six up, ten down
- Fri 9 Oct 2026 — Gonzalo and Emersonn up, White leads nine fallers
- Wed 7 Oct 2026 — Two Fall Overnight, Nobody Rises
- Mon 5 Oct 2026 — Two Arsenal risers, one Newcastle faller
- Sat 3 Oct 2026 — Groß Up, James Down Overnight
- Thu 1 Oct 2026 — Raya up to £6.1m, João Pedro down to £7.7m
- Tue 29 Sep 2026 — Three fallers overnight, no risers
- Sun 27 Sep 2026 — Barry up, Emegha down
- Fri 25 Sep 2026 — De Cuyper Up, Eze Down
- Wed 23 Sep 2026 — One Faller Overnight, No Risers
- Mon 21 Sep 2026 — Prices: Hall and Schade up, João Pedro and Fernandes down
- Sat 19 Sep 2026 — Overnight prices: Groß up, three Arsenal players down
- Thu 17 Sep 2026 — Three up, ten down
- Tue 15 Sep 2026 — Four up, ten down
- Sun 13 Sep 2026 — Gvardiol, Tarkowski, Tavernier rise; Sunderland lose three
- Fri 11 Sep 2026 — Four up, ten down overnight
- Wed 9 Sep 2026 — Overnight prices: Groß up, six fall
- Mon 7 Sep 2026 — Isak Up, Tzolis Down
- Sat 5 Sep 2026 — Wissa Up, Semenyo Down
- Thu 3 Sep 2026 — Calafiori is 5.7m this morning. Gakpo is 7.1m
- Tue 1 Sep 2026 — João Pedro up, Gyökeres down
- Sun 30 Aug 2026
- Fri 28 Aug 2026 — Palmer and Cherki up. Ten down
- Mon 24 Aug 2026 — Two up, two down
How FPL price changes work
How do FPL price changes work?
A player's price moves when enough managers transfer him in or out. Rises need net transfers in to pass a threshold; falls need net transfers out to pass a threshold set as a share of how many managers own him. Prices move once a day, overnight, and each move is £0.1.
What time do FPL prices change?
Overnight, UK time. This season every change we have recorded landed between 13:00 and 02:00 UK, measured from 52 nights of our own polling. Fantasy Premier League does not publish the exact moment and it is not identical every night, so treat it as a window rather than a countdown.
Do wildcard transfers affect price changes?
No. Transfers made on a Wildcard or a Free Hit do not count towards a rise or a fall. This is the single biggest reason price predictions go wrong: nobody outside the game can see how many of a player's transfers were made on a chip, so every predictor is estimating it.
How many transfers does a player need to rise?
There is no published number, and it is not fixed. The threshold scales with how many managers own the player, and the rise threshold falls as the season goes on to account for abandoned teams. Anyone quoting you an exact figure has estimated it, including us.
Does selling a player at a lower price lose me money?
You sell for your purchase price plus half of any rise since, rounded down. So a player who has risen £0.3 since you bought him sells for £0.1 more than you paid, not £0.3. Falls are taken in full — if he drops below what you paid, you lose the difference.
How the predictions work — and where they break
The Tonight and Tomorrow calls above are not a secret model. Fantasy Premier League publishes each player’s own progress meter; we read it, measure how fast it is moving from our own polling, and project it to the nightly change window. When the projection clears the line before the window, that is a Tonight.
Where it breaks, it breaks honestly: wildcard and free-hit transfers are invisible to everyone outside the game, a change resets the meter to zero, and double gameweeks behave differently. The nightly record above — hits, misses and false alarms — is measured from our own polling, and every accuracy figure we publish is on one page, misses included.
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