FPL Budget Picks: The Best FWD Under £9.5
The call — Forwards under £9.5m: who's actually worth your money The sharpest thing our numbers say this week: João Pedro at £7.5m projects for more points over the next six than Isak at £9.0m. That's £1.5m back in your pocket for a better return. This is not a hard decision.
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One squad, picked before a ball was kicked and run for six gameweeks on three transfers — no hits taken. Scored on FPL’s own results.
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Forty-two forwards qualify at this bracket. Here's the honest ledger, in our order of preference — and it's ordered for a reason, so respect it.
João Pedro (CHE, £7.5m) — Starts, kind fixtures, kicks off with BHA (H). Good for roughly six a week over the next six. About 7 in 10 own him already, so he's the template — which means owning him keeps you safe rather than making you rich. Fine. Safe is the point.
Thiago (BRE, £8.0m) — Starts every week, lovely fixtures starting at Elland Road, projects nearly level with Pedro, and only about 2 in 10 have him. That's the one that moves you up a mini-league.
Isak (LIV, £9.0m) — Starts, average run, opens with NFO (H). Solid but the price buys you fewer points than the two above. That's the whole story.
Mateta (CRY, £6.5m) — Nailed, decent return for the price, but MCI (H) first up. Hardly anyone owns him (~1 in 2 out of 10, if you like). A patient pick.
Wissa (NEW, £6.0m) — Starts, very kind fixtures, and owned by almost nobody. TOT (A) first isn't gentle, but at £6.0m this is the best cheap route in the bracket.
Havertz (ARS, £7.5m) — Starts, nice fixtures, but the projection lags players £1.5m cheaper. Pass.
Barry (EVE, £5.5m), Brobbey (SUN, £6.0m), Richarlison (TOT, £6.0m), Calvert-Lewin (LEE, £6.0m), Igor Jesus (NFO, £6.0m) — all start, all cheap, all fine third-forward fodder. Barry's the best of them; Brobbey and Richarlison face tough runs.
Gyökeres (ARS, £7.4m) — Here's your romance tax. Kind fixtures, big name, and our model doesn't expect him to start. Minutes are the entire game at this price. If he's on the bench at 4pm, so are your points. Avoid until Arsenal pick a lane.
The call: João Pedro is the top pick — starts, scores, kind fixtures, and at £7.5m he's the best pound-for-pound forward in the game right now. Buy him. If you already have him, or you want the pick 8 in 10 managers haven't spotted, Thiago at £8.0m is the best alternative — nearly the same points, a fraction of the ownership. Wissa's your £6.0m enabler. Everything else is furniture.