FPL Budget Picks: The Best FWD Under £9.5

Forwards under £9.5m: who's actually worth your money

Thirty-three forwards qualify at £9.5m or below, and the boring truth sits right at the top: João Pedro at £7.8m is the best of the lot, and roughly 7 in 10 managers already know it. Our model has him good for around 38 points over the next six — that's more than a point per million per gameweek, from a man who starts every week for a Chelsea side with a very kind run, beginning at Brentford. You don't get an edge owning him. You get a hole in your team by not owning him.

The rest of the bracket, in the order we'd actually rank them:

Thiago (BRE, £7.9m) — starts, favourable fixtures, projected around 30 over six, and only 1 in 10 own him. Faces Chelsea first, then it opens up. The real differential here.

Wissa (NEW, £6.2m) — £6.2m for a proven starter on a very kind run, Hull at home first up? Projected near 33 points over six. That's the value pick of the whole list. Under 2 in 10 own him.

Isak (LIV, £9.1m) — starts, obviously, but the fixtures are brutal and the projection (27 over six) doesn't justify £9.1m when Wissa gets you more for £2.9m less. Pass.

Calvert-Lewin (LEE, £6.0m) — starts, tough run, decent floor. Fine if you own him, not a buy.

Barry (EVE, £5.6m) — starts, projected mid-20s despite tough fixtures. A genuinely playable cheap third forward; barely anyone (fewer than 1 in 10) has noticed.

Havertz (ARS, £7.6m) — starts, but a very tough run and under 19 projected. £7.6m for that is romance, not value.

Evanilson (BOU, £6.0m) — starts, favourable fixtures after Liverpool first up. Acceptable.

Brobbey (SUN, £5.8m) — starts, very tough run, thin returns. No.

Emersonn (IPS, £5.5m), Gonzalo (FUL, £6.0m), McBurnie (HUL, £5.5m) — all expected to start, none proven at this level, all on tough-to-brutal fixtures. Emersonn's projection is respectable for £5.5m, but unproven plus tough run is two risks for one bench spot.

The call: João Pedro is the pick — pay the £7.8m and stop overthinking it. If you can't fit him, or you want the second forward slot sorted cheaply, Wissa at £6.2m is the best alternative and frankly the best pound-for-pound buy on this page. Barry's your £5.6m enabler if the budget's screaming. Buy Pedro, buy Wissa, ignore the shiny stuff.