FPL Gameweek 3 — Best Squad, Captain & Deadline

The shape is the bit that'll raise eyebrows: 4-5-1, one striker, five midfielders. That's deliberate. This week's slate simply pays out through midfield — Bruno, Saka, Cherki and Gibbs-White all project between 6 and 8 points, and no forward outside João Pedro gets near that. Pedro keeps his place as the lone frontman because Arsenal away is survivable for a player of his involvement, and 7 in 10 managers own him — leaving him out is a bigger risk than starting him.

The engine of the defence is a triple-City play against Coventry at the Etihad. Guéhi and Gvardiol both clear 5 projected points on clean-sheet potential alone, and Cherki makes it three routes into what my numbers rate as the most likely shutout of the round. If City keep it out, this Free Hit wins the defensive battle on its own.

The two genuine punts: Mukiele at £5.5m, owned by barely 2 in 10... actually closer to nobody — about 1 in 50 managers have him — travels to Brentford and still projects over 5 points, which for a defender that cheap is exceptional value. And Kelleher between the sticks against Sunderland at the Gtech is the goalkeeper play — hardly anyone owns him, but the fixture is kind and he edges every keeper I priced up this week.

The bench is £17m of fodder, and that's correct on a Free Hit — every pound is in the eleven, and the bench never plays.

What would change it: this team assumes Bruno and Saka both start. If either name appears doubtful in Amorim's or Arteta's press conference, the armband simply slides — Bruno to Saka, or Saka's vice to João Pedro. Nothing else in the eleven is fragile.

The call: play this exact eleven, captain Bruno Fernandes at Everton, and don't overthink the one-striker shape — the points are in midfield this week, so that's where the money went.

My Best XI This Week: Fernandes Gets the Armband, Not Haaland

The headline from my numbers: Bruno Fernandes, not Erling Haaland, wears the armband in my best £100m squad this week. Fernandes projects for very nearly 50 points over the next six gameweeks — the highest total in the game on my board — and he does it at £12.0m against Haaland's £15.5m. About 5 in 10 managers own Fernandes; roughly 7 in 10 own Haaland, so the City man is your safety net as vice, but Fernandes is my pick to lead.

The real story in this XI, though, is Phil Foden. At £7.0m he projects for almost as many points as Haaland over the next six — a genuinely elite return at less than half the price — and hardly anyone owns him, about 1 in 20. That's the single biggest opportunity in the game right now. He can go massive on his day, and if he does, almost nobody else benefits. If you buy one player this week, it's him.

Elsewhere it's a template spine: João Pedro (£7.7m, roughly 7 in 10 own him) and Mbeumo (£8.0m, about 3 in 10) both project for solid returns most weeks, with Szoboszlai the fifth attacker at £7.0m. The back line is where the value lives — De Cuyper at £4.7m and Lewis Hall at £5.1m are my two favourite budget defenders for clean-sheet potential, Guéhi anchors things at £6.0m, and John Egan at £4.0m is the cheapest playing defender worth having, owned by fewer than 1 in 20. Verbruggen at £4.5m keeps the goalkeeper spot cheap without sacrificing much.

The honest caveat: to fit all this in, the XI leaves out some heavily-owned names — Cherki, Calafiori, Raya and Gabriel among them. If those players haul, this squad takes a rank hit. That's the trade you're making: Foden and the budget defence give you more total points on my numbers, but less protection when the crowd scores.

My calls: build around Fernandes, Haaland and Foden. Captain Fernandes, vice Haaland — and get Foden in before his price and ownership catch up with his output.