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Fantasy Football IQ

How our articles are made

Every article on The Brief is model-assisted analysis: the numbers come from the Fantasy Football IQ engine, and the words come from a named analyst on our desk. We tell you which is which on every piece.

The data behind every number

Our projections are built on the official Fantasy Premier League data, expected goals (xG) from seasons of shot data, and bookmaker match odds for the near-term fixtures. We do not publish our methods, constants or weights — but we do publish how the engine performs.

Numbers plus editorial

Each piece is written by a named analyst working only from the engine's evidence pack. The analyst brings the read and the verdict; the engine brings the numbers. Nothing is invented — the writers use only the facts in front of them, and never claim to have watched the games.

The receipts

We hold ourselves to audited, walk-forward backtests against seasons the engine had never seen — and we print the misses too.

79%Six-gameweek forecasts on targetwithin an average of 2 points a gameweek, on a season the engine had never seen
8.5/11Starting XIs calledactual starters across a two-season backtest — before team news
0.79Team ratings vs the final tablerank correlation across a full-season replay
84%Player pool with real shot datathree seasons of expected-goals data — we never guess for the rest