FPL Fixture Difficulty — The Next Six Gameweeks

Where the runs lead

FPL Fixtures: The Teams With The Easiest Run

The Map for the Next Six Gameweeks: City's Road Is Open

Our model's clearest route over the next six gameweeks runs straight through Manchester City. Ipswich at home, then Aston Villa away, Brighton at the Etihad, Forest, Fulham, before the terrain finally rises at the Emirates. That is five passes of gentle gradient before one proper climb — and Haaland (£15.6m) sits at the head of it, projected for the best part of 51 points across the window. Roughly 7 in 10 managers already own him, so this is less a differential and more a toll you pay to stay on the road. Cherki (£7.9m, around 3 in 10) is the cheaper way onto the same route, good for 37-odd points by our numbers, though he's missed a start recently — minutes are the weather risk. Guéhi at £6.0m is the quiet value pick at the back if you want City coverage without the premium.

Chelsea's attacking climate is almost as kind — Everton away, then Spurs, United and Leeds at the Bridge. João Pedro (£7.8m) projects near 48 points and about 7 in 10 own him; Rogers (£7.9m, ~4-5 in 10) is close behind. The caveat: their clean-sheet outlook is poor, so attackers only. Palmer at £9.7m is the one most managers have drifted off — fewer than 3 in 10 own him — and he still projects well, but the model prefers his two team-mates for now.

Brighton offer the window's best hidden path: Groß at £6.0m projects around 48 points — premium returns at a mid-price — with only 4 in 10 aboard, and De Cuyper (£5.1m) travels well alongside him. But note the terrain: Liverpool and City away in weeks two and three, so expect turbulence mid-route.

Arsenal are the one club where both the attack and the clean sheets look favourable — Forest, Everton, Hull and Newcastle dot the run. Calafiori (£5.9m) and Raya (£6.1m) are the clean-sheet plays; Saka at £9.6m, owned by fewer than 2 in 10, is the attacking line almost nobody is walking.

Brentford's Thiago and Kelleher are serviceable budget passes; Bournemouth, by contrast, face rising ground for goals — Tavernier aside, avoid routing through them.

The call for the next six gameweeks: get Haaland in now if the budget allows; if it doesn't, Groß at £6.0m is the single best value road on the map. Buy before Ipswich at home, not after.

FPL Fixtures: The Teams To Avoid

The Hard Roads: Six Clubs Facing Rough Terrain

Nottingham Forest's next six fixtures read like a route no sensible planner would choose: Arsenal at the City Ground, then trips to Ipswich and Brentford before Manchester City and Chelsea arrive either side of a Bournemouth away day. Three of the division's heavyweights in six weeks, and no soft ground anywhere.

That matters for the 1.5 in 10 managers holding Gibbs-White at £8.0m. Our projections have him at barely 22 points across the stretch — under four a week from a premium-priced midfielder. The honest counterpoint is that he's Forest's best route to attacking returns and could still pop in a kind moment. But the climate is against him, and that money works harder elsewhere. Sell Gibbs-White before the Arsenal visit; revisit once Chelsea has passed. Williams and Murillo face the same weather with even less upside — avoid.

Everton are the interesting exception on this map. The fixtures are genuinely tough — Chelsea and Liverpool at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, Arsenal and Newcastle away — yet Dewsbury-Hall still projects near 28 points at £6.6m, the best figure on this entire list, and hardly anyone owns him at about 1 in 2 in 20. He's the model's preferred Everton route, ranked above Tarkowski (£6.2m, nearly 2 in 10), whose clean-sheet potential thins out badly against that attacking terrain. Hold Dewsbury-Hall through the six; don't buy Tarkowski now — the shutouts aren't coming.

Coventry defenders deserve a careful look despite the climate. Bobby Thomas at £4.0m projects around 24 points over the run — real value at the price, owned by fewer than 1 in 10. Tottenham away is a dead end, but Fulham, Sunderland and Palace at the Coventry Building Society Arena are passable ground for a £4.0m man who also carries goal threat from set pieces. Hold Thomas if you have him; he's a buy only if your budget forces a £4.0m starter.

Sunderland's midfield pair — Le Fée (£5.7m) and Xhaka (£5.4m) — both project around 20-22 points, steady rather than spectacular, with Chelsea, Villa and Spurs on the horizon. Barely anyone owns either (about 3 in 100). Fine holds, not buys. Hold, don't chase.

Fulham and Hull are the routes to abandon. Fulham's best projection is Gonzalo at a modest 18 points with Villa, Newcastle, City and Bournemouth incoming — avoid all Fulham assets for this window. Hull's budget defence (Mendy and Egan at £4.1m, Tzolakis at £4.7m) projects respectably on price, but the clean-sheet outlook is as bleak as Forest's, with Arsenal away in the middle of it. The caveat worth stating: at those prices they only need to start to justify a bench slot. Bench fodder only — never start a Hull defender against Arsenal or Brighton.

The map for the next six gameweeks is clear: sell Gibbs-White, hold Dewsbury-Hall and Bobby Thomas, and route your transfer budget entirely away from Forest, Fulham and Hull until the terrain changes.