Best FPL Transfers This Week: Buy Groß, Sell Szoboszlai, Hold Barry

Hold — don't follow the herd

Fernandes (£11.9m, owned by about 3.5 in 10) has an average run — LEE (A), BOU (H), CHE (A) — but nothing in it justifies the exodus. He projects as one of the better midfield scorers over the next six weeks. Keep him.

Saka is the stranger sell. Around 79,000 managers are moving him on at £9.6m despite a genuinely kind run starting NFO (A) and EVE (H), and he's among the very best midfielders in my numbers from here. Only about 1.7 in 10 own him — that's a chance to zig, not sell. Hold, and buy if you can.

Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) is being sold because Leeds face MUN (H), SUN (A) and BOU (A). Fair worry — but my projections still back him through that run. Hold.

Buy

Pascal Groß is my top pick of the week, and nearly 385,000 managers agree. At £6.0m he's the best-value midfielder on my board — top of my projections among this week's buys, starting with CRY (H). About 4 in 10 already own him, so this is template-protection as much as upside. Buy.

At Chelsea, I rank Rogers (£7.9m) ahead of Cole Palmer (£9.7m) — same lovely fixtures (EVE (A), TOT (H), MUN (H)), but Rogers projects higher and costs £1.8m less. If you're buying one Chelsea midfielder, make it Rogers. Cherki (£7.9m) is the City route in, with IPS (H) up first and about 350,000 managers already moving.

Sell

Schade (£6.2m) carries a shoulder flag — Brentford say 75% chance of playing — and my projection already bakes in missed time. The crowd is ahead of me here; join them. Same story with Szoboszlai (£6.9m): hamstring flag, a tough run of BRE (A), BHA (H), ARS (H), and the sellers are right. Ajayi (£4.2m) has among the weakest projected returns of any owned defender over the next six weeks with a brutal fixture list — move him on.

The call: sell Schade, Szoboszlai and Ajayi, bring in Groß first and Rogers second — and whatever you do, do not sell Fernandes or Saka this week. The crowd's got those two badly wrong.

Tutierov to Sunderland: the £5.0m punt that isn't one

Sunderland have signed Tutierov, FPL have listed him at £5.0m in midfield, and ahead of GW8 he's owned by 0.0% of managers. Before anyone talks themselves into a cheap new-signing gamble, here's the honest picture — and it's a short one.

What has he actually done? We have no record of him in this division. That's not a hedge — it's a fact worth stating plainly. No minutes, no starts, no goal involvements in this league to point at. Every argument for him right now is a guess, and my numbers don't deal in guesses: his six-week projection is effectively nothing.

Where does he fit — and does he play? This is where it falls apart. On my numbers there are ten Sunderland players ahead of him in the pecking order. Ten. He is nowhere near first choice, and the midfield competition is genuinely stacked: Le Fée (£5.7m) is my top-ranked Sunderland midfielder and good for a steady return most weeks over the next six, with Xhaka (£5.4m) just behind him. Even Sadiki at £4.8m and Angulo at £5.0m — the same price as Tutierov — sit comfortably above him. If you want a Sunderland midfielder, the queue forms elsewhere.

Set pieces? None. Diarra has penalties, Angulo takes direct free kicks, Le Fée has corners. There's no back-door route to points here.

And then there are the fixtures. Sunderland's next six are a brutal run: LEE (H), COV (A), CHE (H), AVL (A), TOT (H), LIV (A). Chelsea, Villa, Spurs and Liverpool in four of six gameweeks is a stretch where even the nailed Sunderland assets need a hard look — never mind a new arrival with ten bodies in front of him.

The one thing in his favour is the price, and £5.0m isn't even cheap for a midfielder who may not see the pitch. A £4.5m enabler who plays beats a £5.0m mystery who doesn't, every single time.

My call: leave alone. Not watch — leave alone. If he starts forcing his way into the XI, I'll flag it and we can revisit when the fixtures turn. Until then, if you're shopping at Sunderland, Le Fée is my pick, and Tutierov shouldn't be anywhere near your squad.

Six Picks to Watch — And One You Simply Can't Ignore

João Pedro at £7.8m with a fixture run that reads EVE (A), TOT (H), MUN (H), SUN (A), LEE (H), NFO (A) — that's not a schedule, that's an invitation. Our model has him down for close to 48 points over the next six gameweeks, the kind of sustained return that wins you months, not just weekends. Yes, about 7 in 10 managers already own him, so he's no secret — but that's exactly the point. If you're in the 3 in 10 without him, every Chelsea haul is a punch you're taking on the chin. Get him in.

Now the fun one. Groß at £6.0m actually projects a shade *higher* — just over 48 points — and only about 4 in 10 managers have him. That's serious value in a midfield slot, and Crystal Palace at home first up is a lovely place to start. The honest caveat: Liverpool and City away sit in that run, so expect a quieter week or two in the middle. But Brentford, Hull and Newcastle after that? I'll wear a blank for that kind of back end.

Rogers (£7.9m, ~4 in 10 owned) rides the same gorgeous Chelsea fixtures as João Pedro, good for around 44 points over six. The catch is price — he costs a penny more than his teammate for fewer projected points. If it's one or the other, our model says João Pedro, clearly.

Cherki at £7.9m is the City route in, with Ipswich at home first and only about 3 in 10 managers on board. Around 37 points over six is solid rather than spectacular, and City's attack has a lot of mouths to feed — he's the punt, not the banker.

At the back, be careful. De Cuyper (£5.1m) is a nice price but Brighton's run — Liverpool and City away in the first three — is genuinely tough for clean sheets. Calafiori (£5.9m, over half of managers own him) has kinder fixtures on paper, but roughly 24 points over six is a modest return for the price, and our model ranks him last on this list for a reason.

The call: João Pedro is the must-own — buy him before Everton away. Groß is the smart second move at £6.0m, cheaper and barely half as owned as the template picks. Leave the defenders alone for now; spend the money where the hauls live.