Best FPL Transfers This Week — Gameweek 3

GW3 Transfers: The Crowd Is Selling the Wrong Man

Over 423,000 managers have sold Bruno Mbeumo this week — and I think every one of them is making a mistake.

Hold — don't follow the herd

Mbeumo (£8.0m, MUN) goes to Everton, then hosts City, then travels to Fulham — I have that down as a very kind run, and my numbers say he's good for a return most weeks through it. About 3 in 10 managers own him and a huge chunk are bailing anyway. Nothing in the next six weeks justifies the exodus. Keep him.

Same story, smaller scale, for Gabriel (£8.0m, ARS) — 186,000 sellers ahead of Chelsea at home, Sunderland away and Brighton away, a run with genuine clean-sheet potential — and O'Reilly (£6.5m, MCI), being dumped by 171,000 despite Coventry (H) and Sunderland (H) on the horizon. Both are nailed. Both stay in my squad.

Buy — where the money should go

Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m, MUN) is my top pick this week. Same lovely United run as Mbeumo, nailed on for minutes, and my numbers make him the strongest projected scorer on this list — usually good for solid returns with the odd monster week. Nearly 5 in 10 already own him, so this is as much about not being left behind. 237,000 managers are ahead of you.

Foden (£7.0m, MCI) is the value play. Coventry at home, then Sunderland at home either side of the derby, projected almost as high as Fernandes at £5m less — and hardly anyone has him, under 1 in 10. He can go massive on his day, and 100,000 managers have already spotted it. If you can't afford Bruno, this is where the money goes.

Chelsea's kind run (Arsenal away is the tough one, then Hull at home and Brentford away) puts both Rogers (£7.5m) and Palmer (£9.6m) in play — but my numbers rank Rogers ahead, and that's deliberate. If you're picking one Chelsea midfielder, take Rogers.

Sell — the crowd's already moving

Tzolis (£6.5m, ARS) is owned by about 2 in 10 and I have him among the weakest midfield returns of anyone widely owned over the next six weeks. Van Ewijk (£4.0m, COV) faces City away and Forest away; Diop (£4.0m, IPS) gets Liverpool then two away trips. The crowd is ahead of me on all three — join them.

The call: keep Mbeumo, buy Fernandes if you can and Foden if you can't, and get out of Tzolis before the deadline.

Azeez to Brighton: New Face, No Route Into the Team

Brighton have signed Azeez, and here's the number that matters: on my count there are ten players ahead of him in the pecking order. Ten. That's not a rotation risk — that's a player you shouldn't be thinking about at all.

Let's be straight about what we know, because it isn't much. We hold no prior record for him — no minutes, no starts, nothing to lean on. When I've got no history to work from, the honest thing is to say so, and the pecking order becomes the whole story. Priced at £5.5m as a midfielder, owned by essentially nobody, my numbers project him for next to nothing over the six weeks ahead. That's not a knock on the player — it's simply what happens when you arrive at a new club with a crowd in front of you and no set-piece work coming your way. Pascal Groß holds the penalties, the free kicks and the corners at Brighton, and none of that is changing for a new arrival.

Here's the frustrating part: Brighton's fixtures are genuinely lovely — Leeds at home, Coventry away, Sunderland away, Palace at home, with Arsenal and Liverpool the only ugly ones in the run. If you want a piece of that, my numbers point you elsewhere in the same midfield. Diego Gomez at £5.0m is my top Brighton pick and projects a solid return most weeks across this stretch — and he's cheaper than Azeez. Groß at the same £5.5m price point projects nearly as well and takes every dead ball. Both are proper picks. Azeez, at this price with this projection, is a squad-filler at best and a wasted slot at worst.

Verdict: leave alone. If he starts forcing his way into the XI, I'll flag it. Until then, if you want Brighton's kind run, Diego Gomez is the buy.

Mid-Price Gold: Six Names to Build Your Opening Run Around

Six fixtures, one theme: Chelsea and Manchester City have been handed a red carpet, and the mid-price bracket is where the hauls are hiding.

João Pedro (CHE, FWD, £7.6m) tops our shortlist, and it's not close on the eye test. After a tricky opener at the Emirates, Chelsea get Hull, Brentford, Bournemouth, Everton and Spurs — a run built for a lead striker. Our model has him good for around 38 points across the six, roughly a solid return every week with big-haul days baked in. The catch? None, really, except that about 7 in 10 managers already own him. He's not a punt — he's the price of entry. Get him in.

Mbeumo (MUN, MID, £8.0m) is the one that makes me giddy. Same ballpark projection — around 37 points over six — but only about 3 in 10 own him. Everton away, Fulham away, Spurs at home, Bournemouth at home… City in there is the sour note, but this is a proven haul merchant with room to swing your rank when he goes off.

Rogers (CHE, MID, £7.5m) rides the same gorgeous Chelsea run and projects slightly higher than both — around 39 points — with only about 1 in 4 owning him. The honest caveat: two big attackers from one club means competing for the same goals, so pick your lane. Pedro is the safer route into that attack; Rogers is the cheekier one.

Now the shout for the brave: Foden (MCI, MID, £7.0m). Our model projects around 47 points over six — the biggest number on this list — and barely anyone has him, roughly 1 in 20. Coventry, Sunderland and Ipswich at home is haul territory. The risk is real, though: City's attack is crowded and his minutes are the question mark, which is exactly why he sits below the nailed-on trio. If he starts, he flies. Pair him with Guéhi (MCI, DEF, £6.0m) — about 35 projected points, roughly 2 in 10 ownership, and clean sheets on tap against Coventry, Sunderland and Ipswich.

The avoid? Szoboszlai (£7.0m). Loved by about 4 in 10 managers, but Liverpool's run is a grind and he projects at barely 26 points — the worst return here for the same money as Foden.

The call: buy João Pedro as your banker, grab Mbeumo as the swing pick, and if you've got the stomach, Foden is the punt that wins mini-leagues. Leave Szoboszlai on the shelf.