FPL Budget Picks: The Best FWD Under £9.5

Forwards under £9.5m: who's actually worth your money

Here's the number that matters: João Pedro is projected for nearly 48 points over the next six gameweeks. Nobody else in this price bracket gets within 20 of that. At £7.8m with a very kind run starting at Everton away, Chelsea's forward is the closest thing to a sure thing this bracket offers — and about 7 in 10 managers have already worked that out. You're not finding a bargain here, you're avoiding a mistake.

Now, the rest — one line each, because minutes are the whole game at this price.

Wissa (NEW, £6.3m) — the only man on this list our data confidently expects to start, which at £6.3m is worth more than any highlight reel. Favourable fixtures, Aston Villa at home next, usually good for a steady 4-5 a week, and only about 2 in 10 own him. The value pick.

Thiago (BRE, £7.8m) — proven, but João Pedro money for half the projected points and Liverpool at home first up. Pass.

Calvert-Lewin (LEE, £6.0m) — £6.0m, a very tough run beginning with Manchester United, and his starts aren't guaranteed. About 2 in 10 own him; I'd rather not be one of them.

Barry (EVE, £5.7m) — Chelsea at home, then a brutal run. No thanks.

Emersonn (IPS, £5.6m) — unproven, Manchester City away next. That's a no on both counts.

Evanilson (BOU, £6.0m) — Sunderland at home is nice, the fixtures after aren't, and the starts are a coin flip.

Gonzalo (FUL, £6.1m) and N.Jackson (AVL, £6.6m) — unproven starters into very tough runs. You're paying for hope.

Kostoulas (BHA, £5.6m) — the one genuinely interesting cheapie. Very kind fixtures, Palace at home next, and he's a proven option at £5.6m. If he starts, he's a real bench forward. That "if" is doing some lifting.

Havertz (ARS, £7.5m) — £7.5m for under 13 projected points across six weeks. Arsenal's attack is crowded and the fixtures are tough. Avoid.

McBurnie (HUL, £5.5m) — fodder with a tough run. Only if you never intend to play him.

The call: João Pedro is the top pick — pay the £7.8m, join the crowd, stop overthinking it. If you can't stretch, Wissa at £6.3m is the best alternative: he starts, the fixtures are good, and barely anyone owns him. Buy one of those two. Everything else here is either a rotation gamble or a bench body.