Groß Vs Tavernier: The Better FPL Pick

Groß or Tavernier? My numbers say this one isn't close

Pascal Groß is projected for more than fifty points over the next six gameweeks. Tavernier? Barely thirty. And Groß is 30p cheaper. That's the whole argument, really — but let me show you why.

At £5.8m, Groß is the kind of midfielder who quietly wins you your mini-league: not a headline name, but a reliable 5-6 points most weeks with the odd big haul when Brighton click. About 3 in 10 managers already own him, so he's hardly a secret — but that also means every week you don't have him, you're bleeding ground to the template.

The fixtures are the clincher. Brighton's run is genuinely kind: SUN (A), CRY (H), BRE (H) and HUL (A) are all games where my numbers expect Brighton to create plenty. Yes, LIV (A) and MCI (A) sit in the middle of that run — that's the honest caveat, and I'd expect leaner returns in those two. But four very winnable games out of six is a run you attack, not avoid.

Tavernier is the differential play on paper — hardly anyone owns him, fewer than 1 in 10 — and Bournemouth do get some nice home games in SUN (H), LEE (H) and NFO (H). But a differential only works if the points come, and my projections have him on roughly half of Groß's output over the same stretch, while costing £0.3m more. CHE (A) and MUN (A) early in the run don't help either. Paying extra for fewer points is how good teams go bad.

The honest other side on Groß: he's not an explosive asset. If you're chasing a 15-point captaincy bomb, he's not your man — his game is steady accumulation, set-piece involvement and consistency. But at £5.8m, that's exactly what you want from a mid-price slot: a player who banks points while your premiums do the heavy lifting.

The call: buy Groß, and don't overthink it. He's cheaper, projected for far more points, and his fixtures are kinder. Tavernier is a pass at this price — if you want a Bournemouth attacker, wait and see how they look first. Groß goes straight into my team for SUN (A) and stays there through the run.