Groß
VS
Tavernier
Groß Vs Tavernier: The Better FPL Pick
The call — Groß vs Tavernier: the cheaper man wins, and it isn't close Here's the number that settles most of this argument before it starts: my projections have Groß scoring around six points more than Tavernier over the next six gameweeks — while costing half a million less. When the £5.5m option out-scores the £6.0m option, the burden of proof sits entirely…
Start with Groß. At £5.5m he's one of the best-value midfield slots on the board right now — my numbers have him good for roughly 38 points across the next six, which works out at a steady return most weeks rather than boom-or-bust. That's the appeal: he's the reliable engine of Brighton's midfield, and he lets you spend big elsewhere. About 1 in 6 managers already own him, so he's popular without being fully template — you're not late to this one yet.
Tavernier is the more speculative pick. Hardly anyone owns him — fewer than 1 in 30 managers — so he'd be a genuine point of difference if he came off. But my model has him nearly a point per week behind Groß, and you're paying more for the privilege. Bournemouth's attacking slots are crowded enough that his share of the returns isn't guaranteed either.
The honest caveat on Groß: the fixtures are a mixed bag. Coventry away and Sunderland away are the games you want him for, and Crystal Palace at home is playable — but Arsenal at home, then Liverpool and Manchester City away, is a rough back end to the run. He's the kind of player who ticks over even in hard games, but don't expect hauls at Anfield or the Etihad. Tavernier's run is similarly average — Brentford and Sunderland at home look kind, Liverpool at home and Chelsea and United away do not — so neither man wins this on fixtures alone.
Which brings it back to the simple maths: more projected points, lower price, a proper role in his team. If Tavernier's low ownership tempts you, remember a cheap differential only pays off if he actually out-scores the alternative — and my numbers say he won't.
The call: buy Groß at £5.5m and bank the £0.5m. Tavernier is a pass.