Groß Vs Hinshelwood: The Better FPL Pick

Same price, same fixtures, 19-point gap: this Brighton call isn't close

Two Brighton midfielders, both £5.9m, both staring at the same run of fixtures — and my numbers have Pascal Groß roughly nineteen points clear of Jack Hinshelwood over the next six gameweeks. That's not a coin flip. That's a verdict.

Groß projects to just over fifty points across the next six — call it 8-9 a week, which is proper mid-price returns, the kind of output that quietly wins you your mini-league while everyone argues about premiums. And this is my pick for a reason beyond the raw total: he's the man occupying Brighton's most productive slot, the one everything runs through. About 3-4 in 10 managers already own him, so he's hardly a secret — but at this price, template picks exist because they work.

Hinshelwood is the tempting punt on paper — hardly anyone owns him, fewer than 1 in 100 — but there are two problems. First, my numbers only have him good for around 5-6 points a week, a full level below his teammate. Second, he's carrying a doubt right now, and a flagged player at the same price as a fit, nailed teammate is a bet you don't need to make. The low ownership isn't an opportunity here; it's the market being right.

The fixtures are the reason to move now. Brighton open this stretch with Crystal Palace at home, finish with Brentford at home, a trip to Hull and Newcastle at the American Express — a genuinely kind run. The honest caveat: Liverpool and Manchester City away sit back-to-back in the middle, and nobody projects big numbers at Anfield and the Etihad. If Groß blanks in those two, don't panic — the bookends of this run are where the hauls live.

So the decision is simple. If you want Brighton coverage — and with this fixture list, you should — Groß is the buy, and it's not close. Same money, double-digit points more, no injury doubt, and the central role in everything Brighton create. Hinshelwood is one for the watchlist only if the price drops or the doubt clears and his minutes firm up.

My call: buy Groß at £5.9m before Palace at home. Leave Hinshelwood alone.