Groß Vs Barnes: The Better FPL Pick

That's the kind of gap that ends a debate before it starts, so let me explain why it exists — because on paper these two look similar. Both are midfielders in decent sides, and both genuinely have a kind run of fixtures coming. Barnes gets Coventry away, Villa at home, Palace, Everton, Fulham and then Arsenal at St James' Park. Groß opens at Sunderland, hosts Palace and Brentford, and has Hull away in there too.

The difference is what each player does with those fixtures. My model sees Groß as Brighton's engine — he's involved in nearly everything they create, he's usually good for a solid return most weeks, and when Brighton click he can go big. At £5.8m that's outstanding, which is why about 1 in 4 managers already own him. He's rapidly becoming a template pick, and for good reason.

Barnes is the opposite profile. Hardly anyone owns him — fewer than 1 in 10 — and that's tempting if you're hunting a differential. But my numbers say the low ownership is deserved, not an opportunity. Newcastle's attack has too many mouths to feed, and Barnes isn't first in the queue for the goals and assists that do come. A player averaging roughly five points a week versus one averaging roughly ten is not a coin flip, whatever the fixture list says.

The honest caveat on Groß: Liverpool away and City away sit in the middle of that run, and those are the weeks he's likelier to blank. He's also not a player who hauls every single gameweek — his value is relentless steady returns with the occasional big one, rather than captaincy-level explosions.

But that caveat doesn't move the needle when the alternative is projected to score half as much for more money.

My call: buy Groß, and don't think twice. If Barnes is already in your squad, he's a sell the moment you need the funds. If he's on your watchlist, take him off it.