Groß Vs Tavernier: The Better FPL Pick

Groß vs Tavernier: my numbers say this one isn't close

Same six gameweeks, same midfield slot, and my projections have Groß on course for over fifty points to Tavernier's thirty. That's not a marginal call — that's nearly two full gameweeks of extra return from the cheaper player.

Start with the price. Groß is £5.8m, Tavernier £6.1m, so the Brighton man saves you £0.3m while — on my numbers — averaging close to nine points a gameweek over the next six. Tavernier sits around five a week in the same window. When the cheaper option out-scores the dearer one by that margin, the decision usually writes itself.

Fixtures push it further Brighton's way. Groß gets a very kind run: SUN (A), CRY (H), BRE (H) and HUL (A) are all games Brighton should attack with real intent. Tavernier's schedule is only average — CHE (A) and MUN (A) sit in his run, and Bournemouth's home dates against SUN, LEE and NFO are decent rather than juicy.

Now the honest bit. Groß's run isn't spotless — trips to Anfield and the Etihad sit in the middle of it, and those are weeks where you'd temper expectations or look elsewhere for your captain. He's also no secret: about 3 in 10 managers already own him, so he's more template than punt. Tavernier is the differential here at fewer than 1 in 10, and if you're desperately chasing rank he's the road less travelled. But a differential only works if the points actually come, and my numbers simply don't see enough of them — an average run of fixtures and a projected return well behind a cheaper rival is a thin case.

Groß is the pick, and comfortably. He's cheaper, he scores more on my projections, and four of his next six fixtures are the kind Brighton should be winning. The two tough away days are the cost of entry, not a reason to pass.

The call: buy Groß, leave Tavernier alone. If you already own Groß, hold and enjoy the run. If you own Tavernier, this is the week to move him on.