Groß Vs Tavernier: The Better FPL Pick

Groß vs Tavernier: this one isn't close

My numbers give Groß roughly fifty points over the next six gameweeks. Tavernier? Barely thirty. That's a twenty-point gap between two midfielders in the same price bracket — and the better one is actually the cheaper of the two.

At £5.9m, Groß is my pick and it's not a hard call. He's the kind of midfielder who just keeps ticking — a solid return most weeks rather than a one-week wonder — and Brighton's schedule is doing him favours. Sunderland away, Crystal Palace at home, then Brentford at home and Hull away round out the run. That's a very kind stretch, and it's why my projections have him averaging better than eight points a gameweek over the window. About 3 in 10 managers already own him, so he won't make you stand out from the crowd — but at this price you're buying reliability, not bragging rights.

The honest caveat: that run isn't all gentle. Liverpool away and Manchester City away sit in the middle of it, and those are the weeks you'd expect him to blank. But the fixtures either side are soft enough that the six-week picture still comfortably clears anything Tavernier offers.

And what does Tavernier offer? At £6.1m — two ticks more expensive — he's projected for roughly twenty fewer points over the same stretch. Bournemouth's fixtures are middling rather than bad: Chelsea away and Manchester United away hurt, while Sunderland, Leeds and Forest at home plus Ipswich away are perfectly playable. Hardly anyone owns him, fewer than 1 in 10, so he'd be a genuine differential if he hit. But a differential only works when the numbers back the gamble, and here they simply don't. You'd be paying more for a player my model expects to score barely half as much.

If you want a Bournemouth attacker, wait and see how they look against the big sides first. If you want a sub-£6.0m midfielder who'll quietly bank points through September, this is the easiest decision you'll make all week.

The call: buy Groß at £5.9m. Leave Tavernier alone.