Groß
VS
Tavernier
Groß Vs Tavernier: The Better FPL Pick
The call — Groß or Tavernier? It's Groß — and it isn't close. My numbers have the Brighton midfielder down for around 42 points over the next six gameweeks, against roughly 29 for Tavernier. That's a gap of nearly a haul and a half — and Groß is the cheaper man at £5.8m to Tavernier's £6.1m. You're paying less and getting more.
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The fixture picture explains a lot of it. Brighton's run is genuinely kind: Sunderland away, Crystal Palace at home, then Brentford at home and Hull away to close the window. Groß is the man my model wants from that Brighton attack — good for a steady return most weeks, with the set-piece and creative involvement that means he can go big when Brighton put a side to the sword. About 1 in 4 managers already own him, so he's more template than punt — but at this price, that's a feature, not a bug. You're not clever for avoiding him.
The honest caveat: that Brighton run has two ugly bumps in the middle — Liverpool and Manchester City, both away. Don't be surprised if he blanks in those two. But my projection already accounts for that, and he still clears Tavernier comfortably across the six.
Tavernier's case is thinner. Bournemouth's fixtures are middling — Chelsea and Manchester United away are tough, and while Sunderland, Leeds and Forest at home plus Ipswich away are winnable, my numbers simply don't see him returning often enough to justify the extra £0.3m. Fewer than 1 in 10 managers own him, so he'd be a point of difference — but a point of difference only works if the points actually come, and roughly 29 over six gameweeks is bench-fodder territory at £6.1m.
If you're desperate for a Bournemouth attacker for that home run, fine — but that's a different question. On this head-to-head, there's no debate.
The call: buy Groß, leave Tavernier alone. Cheaper, better fixtures overall, and a projected fourteen extra points over six gameweeks. If you hold Tavernier now, that's your free transfer sorted.