Ipswich Town FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Ipswich: the value's at the wrong end — and even it's shaky

Here's the awkward bit: our model rates Ipswich's defence 19th of 20 — second-leakiest in the league — and yet every Ipswich player worth discussing is a £4.0 defender. That's the whole story of this club in one sentence.

The tables carry the numbers, so let's spend the words on what they don't say. Angel Davis is the pick of the bunch and it isn't close. He's projected best of anyone at the club over the next six, he's on free kicks — a nice bonus for a bloke costing nothing — and yet fewer than 1 in 10 managers own him. Diop is the one everyone bought (just over 1 in 10 have him), and he projects noticeably worse. That's the template getting it backwards, which is where cheap money is made.

Now the caveat, and it's a big one: nobody at this club is nailed. Not Davis, not Diop, not anyone. Five starts from six is decent, but a £4.0 defender is only worth owning if he plays every week — the moment he's rotated, he's dead money on your bench. And the fixtures are honest-to-goodness horrible: our model calls it a tough run for clean sheets and a very tough one for attacking returns, with trips to Man City and Spurs, plus Forest and Bournemouth at Portman Road. The second-worst defence in the league against that lot is not a clean-sheet machine.

What about the attack? Ipswich rate mid-table going forward — respectable — but Emersonn (on penalties, hardly anyone owns him) and Enciso are priced around £5.5m, and at that money you need starts guaranteed and fixtures kind. Neither box is ticked. There are better £5.5m punts elsewhere. Pass.

What would change the call? A confirmed run of starts for Davis, or the fixtures turning after Spurs. Until then, this is a one-player conversation.

The call: Ipswich are not a club to buy into — with one exception. If you need a £4.0 fifth defender to fund the shiny stuff at the other end, Davis is the best-value body at the price, clearly ahead of the more-owned Diop. Buy him as a bench enabler who'll sneak the odd start into your XI. Everyone else: leave well alone.