Liverpool FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

The call — Liverpool's opening six reads like someone at the fixture computer owed them a favour: Newcastle away first, then Forest, Ipswich, Fulham and Bournemouth before Manchester City turn up at Anfield in GW6. For a side our model rates as one of the league's three sharpest attacks, that's five weeks of green before the first real test.

The trap is buying the wrong end of the team. The defence is decent — top-four mean by our reckoning — but the clean-sheet outlook over this run is actually tough. Trips to St James' Park and the Vitality aren't shutout factories, and City in week six needs no explanation. So load up on the goals, be sensible about the backline.

Where the money goes, in order:

Szoboszlai (£7.0m) is our top Liverpool pick and about 4 in 10 managers already agree. Usually good for a steady return, capable of a big week when Liverpool click, and — crucially for me — he plays. Every week. At £7.0m that's the sort of floor you build a season on. Buy.

Isak (£9.0m) is the upside play — our projections have him as Liverpool's biggest points source over the six, he can go massive on his day, and only about 1 in 10 own him. The £9.0m tag is the sting, and forwards at that price need to haul, not tick over. If you've got the budget, he's the differential that makes sense.

Virgil (£6.5m) is the honest defender option — projected well over the run, roughly 2 in 10 ownership — but I'd flag the caveat above: the clean-sheet fixtures are the weak half of this Liverpool story. He returns even without shutouts often enough, but you're paying £6.5m into the tougher side of the deal. Hold if you have him; don't rush to buy.

Wirtz (£7.5m) is the shiny one, and here's my usual question: who gets subbed off on 60 when Liverpool are 3-0 up against Ipswich? Our model ranks him below Szoboszlai for a reason. Talented, watchable, fourth in the queue. Gakpo (£7.0m) at barely anyone-owns-him levels is a punt for the brave, nothing more.

The call: Szoboszlai is the buy — nailed, cheap enough, in the right end of a team with five soft fixtures. Isak if you want the bigger swing. Leave the defenders until the fixtures turn friendlier.