Liverpool FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Liverpool: buy the back door, not the shop window

Here's the oddity our model keeps spitting out: Liverpool's best route to points over the next six isn't the attack at all. The defence ranks among the five meanest in the league, the fixtures set up nicely for clean sheets — and yet the attack sits mid-table in our projections, staring down Man City, Arsenal and United, all at Anfield. That's a tough run of fixtures, and the shop window is exactly where you shouldn't be spending.

So the value sits at the wrong end — which suits me fine. Virgil is the headline: nailed, starts every week, and clean sheets are the whole job description for a defender. Alisson is the quieter version of the same trade — same clean sheets, a pound cheaper, and barely anyone owns him, maybe 1 in 2o. Hardly a soul in 10, frankly. A keeper who starts every week behind a top-five defence at £5.5m is the kind of boring that pays the rent.

If you must have the attacking route in, it's Szoboszlai — and not because he's flashy. He's on penalties, free kicks and corners, which means he gets chances handed to him even in the games where Liverpool are grinding. About 3 in 10 managers already own him, he starts every week, and at £6.9m he's priced for what he actually does rather than what he might. That's the compliment, from me.

Now the honest side. Barcola at £8.0m has started two of five — that's a man priced for his best day while someone else takes his minutes. Pass, and don't look back. Araujo and Mac Allister are flagged as safe but have only started three apiece; "nailed" and "starting" are not the same word. Kerkez is the better cheap defender shout — four starts, £5.3m, and he shares in those same clean sheets — but check the teamsheet before you trust him.

The fixtures again: MCI (H), BRE (A), BHA (H), ARS (H), CRY (A), MUN (H). Brentford, Brighton and Palace are where the shutouts live; the big three at home are where the attackers blank.

The call: buy into Liverpool defensively — Virgil if the budget's there, Alisson if it isn't — and take Szoboszlai as your midfield route only if the set-piece floor appeals. Leave Barcola on the shelf where he belongs.