Groß Vs Tavernier: The Better FPL Pick

Groß vs Tavernier: the cheaper man wins this one comfortably

Here's the sharpest thing my numbers say: Groß is 40p cheaper than Tavernier and projects nearly six points more over the next six gameweeks. When the budget option is also the better option, the decision shouldn't take long.

Let's put shapes on it. Groß at £5.6m projects to around 38 points over the next six — call it a steady 6-7 a week — while Tavernier at £6.0m sits at roughly 32. Neither is a captaincy machine, but Groß is the one clearing a genuinely useful return most weeks, and at that price he frees up cash for your premium slots.

The ownership picture is the one argument for Bournemouth's man. Groß is already in a decent chunk of squads — about 1-2 in every 10 managers have him — while Tavernier is owned by hardly anyone, well under 1 in 10. If he clicks, he moves you up your mini-league fast. But my numbers say he's less likely to click, and paying more for fewer projected points is how you fall behind, not get ahead.

The honest caveat on Groß: that fixture list is no picnic. It's an average run overall, but after COV (A) and SUN (A) — the two you really want him for — Brighton face Arsenal at home, then Crystal Palace, then trips to Anfield and the Etihad. His returns in those last two may be thin, so the 38 is front-loaded around the kinder games.

Tavernier's run is average too: BRE (H) and SUN (H) look playable, LEE (H) is fine, but Liverpool at home, Chelsea away and Old Trafford break it up badly. There's no stretch where he obviously outscores Groß, which is why my projection has him behind across the full window despite the higher price tag.

So the maths is simple. Same period, same average difficulty of fixtures, and the £5.6m player beats the £6.0m player by around six points while banking you 40p of budget. The only reason to go Tavernier is the punt factor of tiny ownership, and I don't back punts that my own numbers say lose.

My call: buy Groß. Start him against Coventry and Sunderland with confidence, and be ready to bench or move him on when the Liverpool and City away days arrive. Leave Tavernier for the mini-league gamblers.