Fulham FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Fulham over the next six: one buy, and it's not where you think

Fulham's defence ranks among the very worst in the league — 19th of 20 by our model — and the fixture list opens with a trip to Anfield followed by Manchester United at Craven Cottage. That's the sales pitch out of the way. Now the honest bit: there's still one player here worth your money.

Gonzalo is the value in this squad. Six million for a nailed striker on penalties is the kind of price that funds a premium elsewhere, and he tops our model's pecking order for the club — ahead of team-mates who project a touch higher, because he's the one occupying the productive slot with the least competition for it. Hardly anyone owns him. He won't haul weekly, but at that price he doesn't have to; he has to start, take the penalties, and cash in when the fixtures soften. And they do soften: after the Liverpool–United double, Fulham get Ipswich away, Hull at home and Coventry away. Three winnable games in a row for a team whose attack is mid-table-poor rather than hopeless.

Josh King and Iwobi are the interesting mid-price alternatives — Iwobi's on free kicks and corners, which is worth something in an attack this ordinary — but at £5.5m you're paying nearly striker money for midfielders in the league's 15th-best attack. The floor is fine. The upside isn't there.

The defence is a hard pass. Leno, Robinson and Castagne are all cheap and all nailed, which normally gets my attention, but a 19th-ranked defence facing this run is not where £4.5m goes. A clean sheet away at Villa or at home to United is a hope, not a plan. Robinson taking the odd penalty doesn't change the maths.

What would change the call? If Fulham keep two clean sheets against the promoted sides mid-run, the cheap defenders become live again. Until then, don't guess.

The call: buy Gonzalo before the Ipswich–Hull–Coventry stretch and bench him for the first two. Leave the defence alone entirely. If you already own a Fulham midfielder, hold through the soft patch — but I wouldn't spend a transfer bringing one in when the striker's cheaper and takes the penalties.