FPL Differentials: The Low-Owned Picks To Target — 12 Oct
The call — Differentials ledger: two picks, one watch Six players. All owned by fewer than 1 in 10 managers. All projected between 26 and 28 points over the next six weeks. That's the whole shortlist. Here's where my money goes. Cunha — buy. Our model ranks him top of the lot. £7.9m, owned by about 6 in 100 managers, projected 27.5 points…
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One squad, picked before a ball was kicked and run for five gameweeks on three transfers — no hits taken. Scored on FPL’s own results.
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Bogle — buy. The value pick. £4.7m, about 8 in 100 own him, projected 26.8 — nearly matching Cunha at £3.2m less. MUN (H), SUN (A), BOU (A) is a very kind run, and his typical week is a steady 3 points with roughly a one-in-7 shot at going big — the best haul odds on the entire list. For a £4.7m defender that's silly. Risk: defenders live and die by clean sheets, and Leeds have to actually keep them.
Neto — watchlist only. This is the proper nobody-owns pick: £6.5m, barely 1 in every 100 managers. EVE (A), TOT (H), MUN (H) is a lovely run and he projects 26.3. But the haul odds sit at one-in-10, a notch below the two above, and the model ranks four players ahead of him. If he returns twice in the next fortnight, I move. Not before.
Barnes, Tavernier and Gomez stay on the bench of this article. Barnes is closest — favourable fixtures, 26.8 projected — but the model prefers Bogle at £1.4m cheaper for the same output. Tavernier's run is tough. Pass.
For the ledger: last time I backed a sub-£5m defender on a kind run against the crowd, it paid. Doing it again.
The call: buy Cunha if you've got the budget, buy Bogle regardless. Neto stays on watch.