FPL Budget Picks: The Best FWD Under £7.5
The call — Budget forwards, £7.5m and under: who actually starts? Thirty-eight forwards qualify at this price point, and roughly half of them will be watching from the bench by October. Here's the shortlist, in order of preference — and at this end of the market, minutes are the whole argument.
João Pedro (CHE, £7.5m) — the safest thing on this list. Starts every week, favourable fixtures beginning at Fulham, and our model has him good for around 27 points over the next six — comfortably clear of the field. About 6 in 10 managers already own him, so he's protection as much as upside. Boring. Correct.
Calvert-Lewin (LEE, £6.0m) — starts, kind fixtures after Forest away, projected near 19 over six. At £6.0m that's the best value in the bracket. Around 3 in 10 own him already, which tells you the market has noticed.
Havertz (ARS, £7.5m) — a very kind run starting with Coventry at home, and hardly anyone owns him (~1 in 2 of 10, generously). The catch: same price as João Pedro for fewer projected points. Pass.
Richarlison (TOT, £6.0m) — starts, decent fixtures, barely owned. A genuinely quiet punt if you want one.
Wissa (NEW, £6.0m) — starts, projects respectably, but Liverpool at home first and owned by almost nobody for a reason: the run is average.
Evanilson (BOU, £6.0m) — good fixtures after the small matter of City away. Fine third-striker material.
Brobbey (SUN, £6.0m) and Igor Jesus (NFO, £6.0m) — both start, both stare down tough runs. Wait.
Mateta (CRY, £6.5m) and Gyökeres (ARS, £7.5m) — flagged in red ink: neither is an expected starter. Gyökeres has lovely fixtures he may watch from the bench, and £7.5m for a maybe is how you end up taking a hit in three weeks. Avoid both until the minutes are real.
McBurnie (HUL, £5.5m) and Simms (COV, £5.0m) — cheap, starting, unproven, tough fixtures. Bench fodder that plays, which has its place — Simms at £5.0m is the enabler pick if the budget is screaming.
The call: João Pedro is the top pick — the biggest projected haul, nailed minutes, no drama. If the £7.5m isn't there, Calvert-Lewin at £6.0m is the best alternative and frees up cash for the fun end of your squad. Buy one of those two and stop scrolling.