FPL Differentials: The Low-Owned Picks To Target — 19 Sep
The call — Under the radar: two picks I'm putting on the ledger Tavernier. Bournemouth. £6.1m. Owned by about 1 in 15 managers. Our model has him top of every low-owned name we track this week — around 34-35 points over the next six.
That's the headline. Here's the case.
He's got a favourable run: CHE (A), then Sunderland at the Vitality, then MUN (A). Two of those look awkward on paper. Doesn't bother me. He's usually good for 4 points a week, and he can hit double figures on his day — roughly a one-in-6 shot at a proper haul any given gameweek. At £6.1m that's cheap for a proven midfielder nobody's watching.
The honest bit: quiet weeks happen. He can hand you a 1 and walk off. That's the price of picks like this.
Second pick. Bogle, Leeds, £4.6m, fewer than 6 in 100 own him. Our model rates him almost level with Tavernier — 34-plus over six weeks — from a defender at bargain money. Leeds get a very kind run once Arsenal away is out of the way: Manchester United at Elland Road, then Sunderland away. He's good for a steady 4 most weeks with a one-in-5 shot at a 9-point return when the clean sheet lands. That's rare odds for £4.6m.
The rest of the list, briefly. Stach (£6.0m, barely 1 in 40 own him) has real upside but an average run — watchlist. Barnes has lovely fixtures — Coventry, Villa, Palace — but Newcastle's attack is crowded and our model likes him least of this lot for haul odds. Muharemović is unproven; I don't spend on unproven. Diego Gomez is interesting at £5.0m but Liverpool away looms. All watchlist.
My ledger says back the top of the list and don't get cute. So: buy Tavernier this week. If you've got a second move and need a defender, Bogle is the one — take the hit on the Arsenal week or bench him for it.
Two picks. On the record. Buy both.