Arsenal
Emirates Stadium
Arsenal FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid
The call — The value at Arsenal is all at the back — and the back door is about to be left unlocked. Our model has Arsenal as one of the four meanest defences in the league, and it's handed them a run of fixtures that's about as kind as clean-sheet hunting gets: Leeds and Everton at the Emirates, Hull at home after…
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The attack is a different story — mid-table by our reckoning and staring at a tough run of its own. That's the whole page in one line: buy the defence, be patient with the forwards.
So who carries it? Calafiori is the one, and it's not close. He's £2.1m cheaper than Gabriel, starts every week, and our projections barely separate them over the next six. Half of all managers already own him — about 5 in 10 — so he's not clever, he's just correct. Gabriel is the better player; Calafiori is the better purchase. That gap funds a real upgrade elsewhere, and funding upgrades is what cheap defenders are for. Raya is the same logic in gloves if you need a keeper — nailed, never blanks, and sits behind that defence at a fair price.
The honest caveat up front: a word on Gyökeres, because somebody will ask. He hasn't started a league game yet, and our model projects him for barely a point a week over this run. He's on penalties behind Saka, which is a nice pub fact and a useless FPL one. Priced for the name, not the minutes. Leave him.
If you insist on the attacking end, Saka is the pick — penalties, corners, free-kicks, nailed, and owned by only about 1.5 in 10 managers, which is strange for Arsenal's best projected asset. Usually good for 5 a week with the odd monster. But with the fixtures leaning defensive, he's the luxury, not the priority.
The call: buy Calafiori before Leeds at home, and don't overthink it. The defence is where Arsenal will score their FPL points for the next six weeks, and he's the cheapest door into it that actually plays.