Tottenham Hotspur FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Spurs: the value is all at the back — and the back is cheap

Here's the shape of it: our model has Spurs down as one of the bluntest attacks in the league — 19th of 20 — but a genuinely tidy defence, top-half at eighth. And the fixtures agree with the split. The attack runs into a horrible stretch, while the clean-sheet outlook over the same six is favourable. If you're buying into this club at all, you're buying the defence. Full stop.

Look at the run: MUN (A), COV (H), CHE (A), CRY (H), LEE (A), IPS (H). Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge are the ugly ones, but Coventry, Palace, Leeds and Ipswich is exactly the sort of run where a mean defence banks shutouts — and exactly the sort where a 19th-ranked attack still doesn't score much. Anyone paying £6.5m for Sávio to attack that run is paying for hope. He's started three of five. I ask the usual question: who's coming off on 60? Usually him.

The pick is Van Hecke. He's £4.9m, he's started five of five, our projections have him as Spurs' best asset over the next six, and fewer than 1 in 10 managers own him. That's a defender priced like an enabler who's actually playing every week for a top-eight defence with kind fixtures. That's the whole job description.

Kinsky at £4.5m is the same argument in gloves — five starts, cheapest keeper bracket, nearly 2 in 10 already on him — a perfectly sensible way to do it if your defender slots are full. Van de Ven and Robertson are fine, but they've each missed a start already and project below Van Hecke, so why pay the same-ish money for a shakier seat?

The honest caveat: nobody in this squad is what I'd call nailed. Even Van Hecke's five-from-five comes without a manager's guarantee, and one benching changes the maths on a £4.9m pick fast. And don't kid yourself the ceiling is high — these are 5-6 point weeks when the shutout lands, not hauls. If Senesi (one start, £5.8m) suddenly walks back into the side, revisit.

The call: buy Van Hecke at £4.9m as your value defender for the next six, take Kinsky if it's a keeper you need — and leave every Spurs attacker alone until the fixtures and the goals say otherwise.