Thiago
VS
Haaland
Thiago Vs Haaland: The Better FPL Pick
The call — My numbers have Thiago out-scoring Haaland over the next six gameweeks — and he's half the price. That's not a typo. The Brentford striker projects for around 34 points between now and GW6, while Haaland sits just under 31.
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At £8.0m against £15.5m, that's £7.5m back in your pocket to spend elsewhere in the squad — and my pick, straight up, is Thiago.
The fixture run explains a lot of it. Brentford get Tottenham at home, then Leeds away, Sunderland at home, Bournemouth away, Chelsea at home and Aston Villa away. Three promoted-or-newly-tested sides in there, nothing that should scare you, and Thiago is the man Brentford's attack runs through. He's usually good for a steady return most weeks in this stretch, and against the softer opponents he can go big.
Ownership is the kicker. Roughly 7 in 10 managers own Haaland. Not even 2 in 10 own Thiago. If he delivers what I expect, that's a genuine leg-up on the field, not just keeping pace with it.
Now the honest bit. Haaland is Haaland — City face Bournemouth, Palace, Coventry, United, Sunderland and Liverpool, and on any given Saturday he can drop a haul nobody else in the game matches. If you own him, this is not a sell note. The gap between the two projections is small, and Haaland's ability to turn one afternoon into 15+ points is real in a way Thiago's isn't. There's also the plain truth that Brentford's supply lines aren't Manchester City's; a couple of tight away games and Thiago's numbers look ordinary.
But that's exactly why the price matters. This is a which-one-to-buy question, and £15.5m for 31 projected points against £8.0m for 34 is a fight the numbers won't let Haaland win. The saved money upgrades a midfielder or fixes a defence, and you're not sacrificing a single projected point to do it.
The call: if you're choosing between them, buy Thiago and spend the difference. If you already own Haaland, hold him — and captain him for Bournemouth at home — but don't feel obliged to find £15.5m if you don't. The cheaper man is my pick for the next six.