Nottingham Forest
The City Ground
Nottingham Forest FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid
The call — Nottingham Forest: the team where nobody plays every week Here's the number that ends most Forest conversations before they start: not one player in this squad is nailed for ninety minutes. Not Gibbs-White, not the keeper, not a single defender. In a team our model rates mid-to-lower table at both ends — 15th for attack, 14th for defence — that's…
What has not being with FFIQ cost you this season?
One squad, picked before a ball was kicked and run for six gameweeks on three transfers — no hits taken. Scored on FPL’s own results.
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The fixtures don't do them any favours either. Palace away, Arsenal at home, then trips to Ipswich and Brentford before Man City turn up at the City Ground and it's off to Bournemouth. Our projections call that a very tough run for the attack and a tough one for clean sheets — so the two usual reasons to buy into a club are both missing.
If you insist on exposure, the tables tell you where the least-bad value sits. Gibbs-White is the model's clear pick — he takes the penalties and the free kicks, so the points don't all depend on open play, and about 1-2 in 10 managers already own him. But he's £8.0m, and £8.0m for a midfielder who isn't guaranteed to start in a 15th-ranked attack is paying midfield-premium money for a rotation risk. That's not value; that's romance.
Lower down, Murillo is quietly interesting — starting more often than his defensive team-mates, on free kicks, owned by almost nobody. He's the one I'd file away for later. Sels is the same story in goal: cheap, mostly starting, but a keeper behind a mid-table defence facing Arsenal and City isn't where £5.0m works hardest. And the cheaper defenders behind him — Muñoz, Diomande — simply aren't starting enough to trust.
The honest read: Forest's value is all at the back, and the fixtures have shut that door for six weeks. There's nothing here a settled £4.5m defender elsewhere doesn't do more reliably.
The call: don't buy. Sell Gibbs-White if you own him and need the £8.0m elsewhere, and revisit Murillo when the fixtures turn.