Manchester United
Old Trafford
Manchester United FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid
The call — Hull away, Ipswich at home, Everton away. That's Manchester United's opening three, and our model rates them the fourth-best attack in the league going into it. You don't need romance to like that — you just need a calculator. The run does get spikier — City come to Old Trafford in GW4, then it's FUL (A) and TOT (H) —…
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The obvious way in is Bruno Fernandes at £12.0m. Our projections have him around 33 points over the six, comfortably United's top pick, and he's the one who never gets subbed off on 60 — penalties, set pieces, every attacking touch runs through him. Half the game already owns him, roughly 5 in 10, so he's more insurance than edge. But at that price the honest question is whether he beats the premium midfielders elsewhere, and the answer for this run is: he doesn't need to embarrass them, he just needs to keep doing what he does.
The sharper value is Mbeumo at £8.0m — about 29 projected points over the six, owned by roughly 4 in 10, and a full £4m cheaper than the captain. If your budget is spoken for elsewhere, he's the one. If you can afford both, that's not greed, that's maths.
At the back it's murkier. Our model likes United's defence — third-meanest in our numbers — but calls the fixtures only average for clean sheets, which tells you Everton away and City at home will bite. Maguire at £5.0m is the pick of the defenders (around 19-20 points projected, only ~2 in 10 own him), with Lammens a perfectly sensible £5.0m keeper and Shaw the £4.5m enabler behind them. None of these will win you a gameweek; all of them will quietly not lose you one. Maguire's the only one I'd actively move for.
The caveat, since we deal in them: this is projection off a kind opening run, and GW4 onwards the fixtures stiffen. Fernandes at £12.0m eats a big chunk of budget for a team that isn't City or Liverpool.
The call: Mbeumo is the buy — best price-to-points in the squad and enough people don't own him yet. Bruno if the budget stretches. Maguire at £5.0m if you need a defender who actually starts. Do it before Hull away, not after.