Manchester United FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

United over the next six: pay for the points, not the armband

Here's the number that matters: our model has Bruno Fernandes and Bryan Mbeumo separated by about half a point over the next six gameweeks. Fernandes costs £11.9m. Mbeumo costs £7.9m. That's four million quid buying you basically nothing — and four million is a whole extra starting defender somewhere else in your squad.

United are worth buying into. The attack ranks among the top five in the league in our projections, the fixtures are a perfectly playable mix — TOT (H), LEE (A), BOU (H), CHE (A), AVL (H), LIV (A) — and the top three names on the page all start every week. The question is purely which door you walk through, and the cheap door leads to the same room.

Mbeumo is the pick. He's on penalties behind Fernandes, takes free-kicks and corners, he's nailed, and only about 2 in 10 managers own him — against nearly 4 in 10 for Bruno, who is priced for his reputation rather than his output. Cunha is the sneakier version of the same trade: near-identical projected points at the same £7.9m, owned by barely half as many managers again. If you want the pub-bragging version, that's him. If you want the sensible one, Mbeumo's set-piece share gives him the sturdier week-in, week-out return.

The honest caveat sits at the other end. United's defence ranks in the bottom half of the league in our numbers, so Lammens at £4.9m and Maguire at £4.8m are fine enablers — they start, which is the whole job at that price — but they're bench fodder who occasionally sneak into the XI, not a clean-sheet plan. Chelsea away and Liverpool away in this run tell you why. Shaw, Dalot and Martínez are all flagged as starting four of the last five, which means somebody rotates, and I'd rather not guess who.

One more risk worth naming: Mbeumo's and Cunha's numbers assume they keep sharing the goals around with Fernandes rather than feeding him. On the evidence so far, they're earning their own returns.

The call: buy Mbeumo at £7.9m, and if you're feeling brave, Cunha instead. Don't pay £11.9m for Fernandes — he's four million of badge. Leave the United defence to managers who enjoy suffering.