Manchester City FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

City over the next six: buy the run, but buy the right door

Here's the thing our numbers keep flagging about Manchester City: not a single player on the page is nailed on yet. Two league starts each, a squad with more good footballers than shirts, and Pep being Pep. That's the tax you pay on everything below — and it's why picking the right door matters more than usual.

The run itself is genuinely good. Top-five at both ends of the pitch in our prediction, and after the two nasty away days — Old Trafford next, then Anfield in a few weeks — it's Sunderland, Ipswich, Brighton at home and Villa away. That's clean-sheet territory and goal territory in the same window.

So which end do you buy? The honest answer is the attack, and specifically Foden. He sits second among the outfield options on our list, he's started both games, he's on free kicks and shares corners, and hardly anyone owns him — roughly 1 in 20. At £7.0m he's the rare City ticket where the price reflects his floor, not a dream. Usually good for a steady return, and he can go big on his day.

Contrast that with Cherki, who about 3 in 10 managers have bought. Our model ranks him well below Foden, and the starts back that up — one to Foden's two. The crowd bought the shiny new thing; the minutes have gone elsewhere. Classic ceiling pricing. Who gets subbed off on 60? Probably him.

Haaland still tops the list overall, obviously — penalties, the biggest single-week upside in the game, and about 7 in 10 own him, so not having him is the real gamble. But at £15.5m even he isn't showing as fully nailed in our data yet, which tells you everything about this squad. At the back, Guéhi at £6.0m is the sensible clean-sheet route once the home run starts, ahead of Gvardiol and O'Reilly.

The caveat is the caveat: two games is a small sample, and rotation could bite anyone here the week you captain them.

The call: buy Foden now, before the crowd notices. Keep Haaland if you've got him. Leave Cherki on the shelf.