João Pedro Vs Wissa: The Better FPL Pick

João Pedro or Wissa? My numbers say this isn't close

Twelve points. That's the gap my projections put between João Pedro and Wissa over the next six gameweeks — the Chelsea man is on course for around 36 points, Wissa for around 24. When two forwards separated by £1.5m are separated by that much on my numbers, the expensive one is usually the right answer. This is one of those times.

Start with João Pedro at £7.5m. Chelsea's run is a gift: Fulham away, Brighton at home, then after the Arsenal trip it's Hull (H), Brentford (A) and Bournemouth (H). Arsenal aside, that's the kind of schedule where a lead forward should be returning most weeks — my numbers have him averaging roughly six points a game across the stretch, with the fixtures at Stamford Bridge the obvious spots for a big haul. The catch? You won't gain ground on anyone with him. Roughly 7 in 10 managers already own him, so he's a template pick — miss out and you're the one chasing.

Wissa at £6.0m is the opposite story. Hardly anyone owns him — fewer than 1 in 20 — and his Newcastle fixtures are genuinely kind too once you get past the opener: Liverpool at home and Spurs away are rough, but then Bournemouth (H), Leeds (A), Hull (H) and Coventry (A) is a lovely run. My numbers still have him at a respectable four points a game, which is decent going at his price. If your squad is stretched and that £1.5m saving unlocks an upgrade elsewhere, he's a perfectly sensible enabler.

But be honest about what you're buying. Wissa's first two fixtures could easily produce back-to-back blanks while João Pedro is filling his boots against Fulham and Brighton — and by the time Newcastle's run softens, Chelsea's has already delivered.

My call: if the budget allows, João Pedro is the pick — buy him now, before the kind fixtures start, and don't be clever about it. Wissa is a fine £6.0m punt if the funds simply aren't there, but treat him as a bench-and-hope option for the first two weeks, not a starter. Between the two, take João Pedro every day of the week.