João Pedro Vs Mateta: The Better FPL Pick

The £1.0m price difference is the only real argument for Mateta. At £6.5m he's a genuinely cheap route into a starting striker, and hardly anyone owns him — fewer than 1 in 10 managers — so any big week from him moves you up the ranks fast. His run is perfectly playable too: FUL (A), IPS (H), LEE (A), NFO (H), BHA (A), NEW (H). Nothing scary, nothing gift-wrapped. He's the definition of a solid mid-range punt: usually good for a steady return, occasionally a double-figure day, rarely the man who wins you a gameweek on his own.

João Pedro is a different animal. Yes, ARS (A) first up is a tough start, but look past it: HUL (H), BRE (A), BOU (H), EVE (A), TOT (H) is about as kind a run as a Chelsea forward could ask for. My projections have him averaging close to six points a week across the stretch, and the home games against Hull and Bournemouth are exactly the kind of fixtures where he can go massive. The catch is that you get no bragging rights — roughly 6-7 in 10 managers already own him, so he's pure template. Owning him protects your rank rather than building it.

So the honest framing is this: Mateta is the pick if you desperately need the £1.0m elsewhere or you're chasing rank with a low-owned punt. But eleven projected points over six weeks is a big cheque to write for a saving that small, and when two-thirds of the game owns the better player, not having him is the real gamble — every João Pedro haul actively hurts you.

My pick: pay the extra and buy João Pedro. If the budget genuinely won't stretch, Mateta is a respectable fallback — but don't kid yourself that it's a coin flip. It isn't.