Chelsea
Stamford Bridge
Chelsea FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid
The call — Chelsea: buy the attack, don't touch the back Here's the split that matters: our model rates Chelsea's attack as one of the four best in the league — and their defence as the third worst. Same club, two completely different propositions. The fixtures pull the same way: a kind run for goals, a grim one for clean sheets. So this…
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One squad, picked before a ball was kicked and run for six gameweeks on three transfers — no hits taken. Scored on FPL’s own results.
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The run itself is genuinely good — Bournemouth at home, Everton away, then Spurs and United at Stamford Bridge, Sunderland away, Leeds at home. That's the sort of stretch where a top-four attack should score in bunches.
The catch — and with Chelsea there's always a catch — is minutes. Not one player in that table is nailed. Not Palmer, not anyone. This is a squad where the manager rotates like it's a hobby, so the question isn't "who's good", it's "who's getting subbed off on 60, and who's not starting at all".
Our model's answer is Rogers, and I agree with it for the dullest possible reason: he's £2m cheaper than Palmer, he's on corners, he's started five of five so far, and roughly 4 in 10 managers already trust him. Palmer has the penalties and the bigger name, and on his day he'll out-haul anyone — but you're paying nearly ten million for a player the club won't guarantee ninety minutes, and our numbers actually have Rogers edging him over the next six anyway. Paying premium money for rotation risk is how banks get broken.
The defence? Leave it alone. Lacroix and Fofana are cheap and the projections aren't terrible, but you're buying clean sheets from a back line our model ranks 18th of 20, into fixtures it calls tough, from defenders who each sat out at least one match already. A cheap defender who might blank and might not start is a double negative. Welbeck's one start in five tells its own story too.
What changes the call: if the team sheets settle and Palmer starts running out ninety minutes weekly, the premium becomes payable — the pens and free kicks are his, and this fixture run suits a captaincy punt. Until then, the value sits in the midfield at the cheaper price point.
The call: buy Rogers for the next six. Hold off on Palmer until his minutes look nailed, and don't spend a penny on Chelsea defenders.