Chelsea FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Chelsea: buy the front end, don't touch the back

Our model rates Chelsea's attack as the sharpest in the league right now — and their defence as one of the leakiest, down at 16th of 20. That's not a nuance. That's an instruction. Everything worth owning at Stamford Bridge over the next six gameweeks plays in front of the halfway line.

The fixtures back it up: Hull at home, then Brentford away, Bournemouth at home, Everton away, then Spurs and United at the Bridge. For the forwards that's a very kind run. For clean sheets it's a slog — the model has the shut-outs drying up, which is why Lacroix, James and friends project so modestly despite honest prices. A defender behind the 16th-best defence with Spurs and United incoming is not value. It's a subscription to 2-pointers.

So who carries the good end? João Pedro tops our list — nailed, priced sensibly for a forward leading the league's best attack, and already in roughly seven of ten squads. That last bit matters: he's template. Not owning him is the gamble now, not owning him.

Rogers is where the actual value sits. He projects the biggest haul of anyone at the club over the six, he's nailed, he's on corners, and only about three in ten managers have caught on. That's a mid-price midfielder doing premium work while the crowd looks elsewhere.

Palmer is the ceiling play — penalties, free kicks, the ability to go enormous on his day — but he's priced for that ceiling, and only about two or three in ten own him. If you're chasing, he's your differential with pedigree. If you're protecting a rank, Rogers gives you most of the output for two quid less.

The deep cut is Neto — nailed, on set pieces, owned by practically nobody. A genuinely cheap route into this attack if the budget is tight, though he's the third attacking name for a reason.

The caveat, as ever: this is a squad with more good attackers than good slots, and the sample on this season's pecking order is small. If minutes start rotating among the front line, the value case thins fast.

The call: buy into Chelsea now, through the attack only. João Pedro if you don't own him, Rogers as the best pound-for-pound pick on the page, Palmer if you need the upside. Leave the defence on the shelf.