Chelsea
Stamford Bridge
Chelsea FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid
The call — Chelsea: the value's all at one end Cole Palmer at £9.6m, on penalties, owned by fewer than 2 in 10 managers — and our model still ranks him third pick in his own team. That tells you everything about where Chelsea's value sits right now.
What has not being with FFIQ cost you this season?
One squad, picked before a ball was kicked and run for six gameweeks on three transfers — no hits taken. Scored on FPL’s own results.
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Start with the shape of the thing. Our numbers make this one of the league's sharpest attacks — third of twenty — and the fixtures are about as kind as they come: after Arsenal away, it's Hull at home, Brentford away, Bournemouth at home, Everton away, Spurs at home. Four of those five are games Chelsea should be scoring in. The defence is mid-pack, eleventh, with an average run for clean sheets. So the maths is simple: pay for the front end, keep the back end cheap.
Through whom? João Pedro is the model's first name, and mine too. £7.7m, nailed, started both games, usually good for 5–6 with proper hauls in him against the Hulls and Bournemouths of this run. About 7 in 10 already own him, which is exactly the point — a template forward at that price who never sits down isn't a pick you get clever about, he's a pick you just have. Rogers is the sharper piece of business for anyone with the slot: £7.5m, nailed, projects fractionally better, on corners, and only about 1 in 4 own him. Palmer is the big-week merchant — penalties, free kicks, can go massive — but you're paying £9.6m for the ceiling, and the model prefers both cheaper men. That's a hint, not an accident.
The honest caveats. Two games of data is two games. And down the price list, be careful: Neto and Martinez are listed as nailed but have one start apiece so far — I'd want another week's team sheet before spending on either. Colwill and Gusto at £5.0m are the genuine enablers here — both started both games — but with an eleventh-ranked defence and an average clean-sheet run, they're funding money, not points. Lacroix at £6.0m is paying a pound extra for the same middling clean-sheet odds. Pass.
The call: buy into this attack now, before Hull at home. João Pedro if you don't own him; Rogers if you do and want a second route in. Leave the defence to the £5.0m boys, and leave them on your bench.