Brentford FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Brentford: The Value's at the Wrong End — Which Is the Right End

Here's the awkward truth our numbers spit out about Brentford: they've got a top-half attack facing a tough run, and a top-six defence facing a very kind one. Aston Villa away and Liverpool at home is a rough welcome for anyone carrying Schade or Thiago — but Hull away, Forest, Brighton and Everton is exactly the sort of run a mean back line eats.

So the buy here isn't the shiny stuff. It's the boring stuff, which suits me fine.

Kelleher tops our list, and at £5.0m he's the pick of the lot — usually good for 4-5 a week over this stretch, and against Hull and Everton he's got real clean-sheet money in him. Only about 1 in 2 managers even glance at him — roughly 1 in 10 own him. Ajer is the other one worth your time: £4.5m, projecting nearly the same points as forwards costing £3m more, and hardly anyone has him — about 1 in 25. That's the maths that funds a premium elsewhere in your squad. Points per million, nothing at Brentford comes close.

Now the deadpan bit, because there always is one. Nobody in this squad is properly nailed. Kelleher and Ajer have started four of the recent games, not all of them, and a defender who sits out a week hands back a chunk of what you bought him for. That's the single thing that would change this call — if either drops out of the XI, walk away.

The attack? Thiago at £7.8m has penalties, which is nice, but he's priced for his best week, not his usual one, and the fixtures say the best weeks aren't coming just yet. Schade's the same story a pound cheaper. Sangaré is the most-owned Brentford player at about 1 in 10 managers, and our model ranks four teammates above him — which tells you plenty of people are holding the wrong Bee. Janelt at £5.0m is the quiet body if you just need a fifth midfielder who plays.

The call: buy Brentford through the back door. Kelleher if you need a keeper, Ajer if you need a cheap defender — get them in before the Hull-Forest-Brighton-Everton stretch, and just ride out the Liverpool game. Leave the attackers on the shelf until the fixtures turn. Reliable and cheap beats shiny and rotated. It usually does.