B.Fernandes Vs Palmer: The Better FPL Pick

Fernandes or Palmer? My numbers say it isn't close

Fifteen points. That's the gap my numbers put between Bruno Fernandes and Cole Palmer over the next six gameweeks — Fernandes projects for a shade over fifty points in that stretch, Palmer for the mid-thirties. When two premium midfielders are separated by roughly two and a half points a week, the decision mostly makes itself. The only real question is whether the £2.4m saving on Palmer buys you enough elsewhere to justify it.

Start with Fernandes. At £12.0m he's the most expensive of the pair by some distance, and he's already close to template — about 4 to 5 in 10 managers own him. But my projections have him averaging around eight and a half points a game across a very kind run: MCI (H), FUL (A), TOT (H), LEE (A), BOU (H), CHE (A). That opener against City looks scary on paper, but the run softens quickly, and Fernandes is the kind of player who can go massive when United click — he's on everything: penalties, free kicks, the lot.

Palmer's case is real, just weaker. At £9.6m he's the value play, and with only about 2 in 10 managers owning him, he's a genuine point of difference if he hits. His fixtures are arguably even softer — HUL (H), BRE (A), BOU (H), EVE (A), TOT (H), MUN (H) — which is exactly the kind of run where he's hauled before. But my numbers project him a full fifteen points behind Fernandes over the same period, and a kind fixture list can't paper over that. Good most weeks, yes. The better pick of the two, no.

The honest caveat on Fernandes: £12.0m is a lot of budget in one slot, and if the rest of your squad is thin, the £2.4m you'd bank with Palmer could upgrade a defender or bench player meaningfully. If your team is genuinely stretched, Palmer plus the savings is a defensible route.

But if you're choosing purely between these two — and most managers asking this question are — the answer is simple. Fernandes is my pick, and it's not a coin flip. Buy Fernandes, and with that fixture run, keep him firmly in your captaincy conversation from GW2 onwards.