FPL Differentials: The Low-Owned Picks To Target — 19 Oct

Our projections rate his run as favourable across the six, and the week-to-week shape is what I want: usually good for around 5 points, with roughly a one-in-5 shot at a double-digit week — his big weeks land near 13. A quiet week costs you about 1 point. That's the trade. I've made worse. My ledger says the early punts on players under 1% owned are where the real gains came from last season.

Neto is the second name. £6.5m, owned by 2.1% of managers, projected for about 32 points over six. Tottenham and Manchester United at Stamford Bridge, then Sunderland away. Favourable run. The caveat is honest: his typical week is nearer 3 points, so he's streakier than Hinshelwood — but roughly a one-in-6 shot at a 12-point week, in those fixtures, at that ownership, is a position I'll take.

The rest, briefly. Davis at £4.0m and 7.5% owned looks like value until you see the fixture run — our projections call it tough, with Forest and Bournemouth in there. Unproven at this level too. Watchlist. Diego Gomez and Vuskovic share Brighton's fixtures with Hinshelwood but sit below him in our rankings for a reason — Hinshelwood is the one taking the productive minutes in that side, so don't double up lower down the list. Bobby Thomas at £4.0m is interesting as a cheap body with Fulham and Sunderland at home, but his quiet weeks are blanks. Bench fodder with a pulse, nothing more.

The calls, on the record: buy Hinshelwood — he's the pick of this entire list and 0.6% of managers own him. Buy Neto if you want a second swing. Everyone else here is watchlist-only. Hold your money.