FPL Differentials: The Low-Owned Picks To Target — 5 Sep
The call — Differentials watch: two picks, on the record Foden at £7.0m, owned by about 1 in 2 of nobody — roughly 1 in 20 managers. That's the headline. A Man City midfielder our model projects for nearly 45 points over the next six, and the crowd isn't there.
Let's be honest about what you're buying. The run is very kind — MUN (A), SUN (H), LIV (A) in the mix, and yes, two of those are away trips that sound scarier than our numbers think they are. Typical week: about 5 points. Quiet week: 1, and Foden does have quiet weeks — that's why the ownership is where it is. But he carries roughly a one-in-4 shot at a proper haul any given week. At £7.0m, in a City side, with hardly anyone owning him, that's the trade I want. Buy.
Second pick: Diego Gomez, £5.0m, Brighton, owned by fewer than 1 in 20. This one's cheekier. He projects around 37 points over six — outstanding for the price — with COV (A), ARS (H), SUN (A) coming. Same shape as Foden: 5-point weeks as standard, one-in-5 shot at going big. The Arsenal game is the ugly one. The other two are exactly the fixtures you buy a £5.0m midfielder for. Buy if you need a fifth mid. He's my value call of the round and it goes on the ledger.
The rest, briefly. Gibbs-White (£7.9m, just under 1 in 10 own him) projects less than Gomez at £2.9m more. Pass. Newcastle's defence is the interesting cluster — LEE (A), HUL (H), COV (A) is a lovely run for clean sheets. Hall (£5.1m) is the pick of them, usually good for 4 with a one-in-5 shot at a 9-point week. But nearly 1 in 10 already have him, which by my standards makes him half-template. Botman at £5.0m and 0.6-in-10 ownership — basically nobody — gets you the same clean sheets for less, with slightly less upside. If you want a true nobody-owns-him defender, Botman is the play. Otherwise watchlist the lot until we see the Leeds trip.
For the record: my ledger's had a good run on £5.0m midfielders. Gomez fits the pattern.
The calls: buy Foden, buy Gomez. Botman only if you're hunting a defender nobody else has. Everything else waits.