FPL Differentials: The Low-Owned Picks To Target — 11 Sep

A typical week is a steady 3, quiet weeks happen, but he's roughly a one-in-6 shot at a proper haul any given gameweek — and on his day that's a 12-pointer nobody else in your mini-league has. The fixtures are only average — BRE (H), then LIV (H) and CHE (A) — so I won't dress that up. Two of those three are hard. But the model rates him anyway, and I've learned to listen. My ledger says the last time I backed a sub-4-in-100 midfielder against the fixture grain, it paid inside three weeks.

Second pick: Botman. £5.0m, owned by fewer than 1 in 100 managers. Newcastle get LEE (A), HUL (H), COV (A) — a genuinely kind run — and he's the best-ranked of their two cheap defenders, projected 29 over six with roughly a one-in-5 shot at a big week when the clean sheet lands and he nods one in. A defender with those odds at that ownership is exactly the sort of pick this column exists for. Thiaw is the same price, same fixtures, slightly worse odds. Take the one the model prefers. Take Botman.

Honest caveats. Tavernier's ownership is low for a reason — managers see Liverpool and Chelsea coming and look away. Botman carries the usual centre-half truth: quiet weeks are quiet, and you're betting on shutouts against promoted sides actually arriving.

The rest of the list — Cunha, Diego Gomez, Hill — is watchlist only. Cunha's run is lovely on paper (MCI (H) aside, FUL (A) and TOT (H) appeal) but at £7.9m he's the most expensive name here with the longest haul odds among the midfielders. Gomez's typical week is a 2. Hill is the cheaper Bournemouth defender but the model puts Tavernier well clear in that team.

The call: buy Tavernier and Botman this week. £11.0m combined, near-zero ownership, and both carry real haul odds. On the record. Ledger open.