FPL Differentials: The Low-Owned Picks To Target — 15 Sep
The call — Tavernier tops our differentials board this week — and fewer than 1 in 20 managers own him. That's the gap I trade on. My ledger says back the list, not the crowd. Six names, all owned by fewer than 1 in 10. Ranked by our projection. Here's how I'd play them.
Tavernier (BOU, £6.1m) leads. Our model has him around 34 points over the next six — best of the bunch. Liverpool at the Vitality first isn't pretty, but Chelsea away then Sunderland at home follow, and the projection already prices all that in. Usually good for about 4 points, blanks happen, and on his day he can post a 12. Roughly a one-in-6 shot at a haul any given week. Proven player. Cheap. Nearly nobody has him.
Bogle (LEE, £4.5m) is the second name on my ledger. Owned by barely 1 in 50. A very kind run — Crystal Palace at Elland Road, then Arsenal away is a write-off, then Manchester United at home. Roughly a one-in-5 shot at a big week — best haul odds on the whole list — because he attacks as well as defends. At £4.5m that's a real fifth defender, not an enabler.
The rest, briefly. Diego Gomez (BHA, £5.0m) is close behind Tavernier and £1.1m cheaper — Arsenal at home first is grim, but Sunderland and Palace after are lovely. Watchlist. If he starts the Arsenal game, I'm in for the following week. Stach and Muharemović are Leeds cover if you can't fit Bogle — but the model ranks Bogle above both, so take the hint. Muharemović is unproven at this level; I don't buy unproven when a proven £4.5m sits above him. Boscagli (BHA, £4.5m) is the deep cut — owned by roughly 3 in 1,000. Solid clean-sheet route once the Arsenal game passes. Watchlist only.
Honest caveats. All of these carry blank risk — quiet weeks around 1 point across the board. That's the price of going where nobody else is. You don't get a 12-pointer nobody owns without eating a blank or two.
The calls: buy Tavernier, buy Bogle. Gomez and Boscagli go on the watchlist. Leave Muharemović alone. Ledger's open — check back in six weeks.