Tarkowski Vs Virgil: The Better FPL Pick

Tarkowski vs Virgil: the £6.0m defender beating the template pick

My numbers have James Tarkowski out-scoring Virgil van Dijk over the next six gameweeks — around 28 points to 25 — while costing half a million less. That's the whole argument in one line, and it's worth acting on.

Start with the fixtures, because they're doing most of the work. Everton open with a genuinely kind run: CRY (H), BOU (A), MUN (H), TOT (A), IPS (H), HUL (A). Trips to Tottenham aside, that's a schedule full of clean-sheet chances, with newly promoted Ipswich and Hull in there and nothing that should frighten a well-drilled back line. Liverpool's run is the opposite problem — NEW (A) first up, then IPS (A), FUL (H), BOU (A) and Manchester City at Anfield to close the window. Virgil is as nailed as any defender in the game, but clean sheets against Newcastle away and City at home are hard-earned, and that's where his projection sags.

The ownership gap matters too. Virgil is a template pick — about 2 in 10 managers own him, so he mostly protects your rank rather than building it. Tarkowski sits at under 1 in 10, which means every Everton clean sheet actually moves you up the table. For a defender, that's the trade you want: same slot in your team, fewer points likely from the pricier name, and you bank £0.5m to spend further forward.

The honest caveat: Virgil is the better footballer at the better club, and if Liverpool grind out shutouts through that tough run — they're capable — he'll close the gap. Tarkowski also carries the usual budget-defender truth that his week-to-week hauls will mostly be steady rather than spectacular; he's good for a solid 4-6 most weeks with the odd bigger return when Everton keep it tight and he attacks a set piece. This isn't a pick that goes massive; it's a pick that quietly out-points a more expensive rival.

Over this six-game window, though, the maths is straightforward: more projected points, lower price, lower ownership, better fixtures. That's four ticks against zero.

My call: buy Tarkowski, and if you own Virgil, he's the sell that funds it. Revisit when Liverpool's fixtures turn — but for now the cheaper man is simply the better pick.