Sunderland FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Sunderland: buy the back, ignore the front

Our model has Sunderland's defence as the fifth meanest in the league. Their attack? Third from bottom. That one line tells you everything about which end of this squad your money should be at.

Start with the defence, because that's where the value lives. Ballard at £4.9m tops our whole Sunderland list, Roefs is the same price in goal, and Mukiele isn't much dearer — all nailed, all starting week in, week out, all owned by hardly anyone (about 3 in 10 combined, generously). For enabler money you're getting first-team defenders in a genuinely stingy unit, the sort who quietly bank 4-5 most weeks with a clean sheet turning it into 8-9. The run is only average for shutouts — Manchester City away first is a write-off — but Brighton at the Stadium of Light, Bournemouth away, Leeds at home and Coventry away is the kind of stretch a fifth-ranked defence can eat. Ballard is my pick of them: cheapest of the outfielders who's fully nailed, and he clears his price band comfortably.

Xhaka is the midfield version of the same logic — £5.5m, on free kicks and corners, never rotated, owned by about 1 in 2.5 of nobody (call it 4 in 10 of managers who've noticed). He's a floor pick, not a hauler, and that's fine at the price. Le Fée has the shinier set-piece portfolio, including a share of penalties, but he costs more for less projected return, and I don't pay extra for maybes.

Now the honest bit. Sunderland's attack faces a very tough run of fixtures on top of already being blunt, so Brobbey — the most-owned Sunderland asset, oddly — is exactly the pick I'd avoid. Six in 10 fewer projected points than the defenders behind him, at a higher price. That's romance, and romance doesn't score.

Chelsea at home rounds off the six, which caps the ceiling late on, and if Sunderland's early clean sheets don't materialise the whole thesis softens. But at these prices you're not paying for a thesis — you're paying for minutes, and these lads play.

The call: buy Ballard at £4.9m — or Roefs if it's the keeper slot you need — bench them for City away, then start them every week after. Leave the forwards alone.