Sunderland FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

The call — Sunderland: the case for leaving them alone Let's start with the maths our model won't dress up: Sunderland rank among the league's bluntest attacks — 17th of 20 — and their defence sits 15th. That's a team that struggles to score and struggles to keep them out, and now the fixture computer has handed them Arsenal, Manchester City, Brentford away…

The run reads IPS (A), FUL (H), BRE (A), ARS (H), MCI (A), BHA (H). Ipswich away first up is the kind one, and Fulham at the Stadium of Light is playable. After that it gets grim fast — our projections rate it a tough run for their attackers and a very tough one for clean sheets. A 15th-ranked defence facing Arsenal and City isn't a clean-sheet punt, it's a donation.

If you must have a Sunderland player — and about 1 in 10 of you already do — Brobbey at £6.0m is where the model points first. He's the man occupying the striker slot, owned by roughly 1 in 7 managers, and he's good for around three points a week over this stretch — a starter's return, nothing more. Xhaka at £5.5m actually projects a whisker higher across the six, and barely anyone owns him (fewer than 1 in 20), but he's a Xhaka: he plays every minute and hauls almost never. Reliable floor, no fireworks. Le Fée at £6.0m sits behind both and I wouldn't pay six for the privilege.

At the back, Roefs (£5.0m) and Ballard (£5.0m) are honest budget bodies, but when your own model calls the clean-sheet run "very tough", a fiver on a defender who'll concede at the Etihad and against Arsenal is money that belongs elsewhere. There are £4.5m defenders at clubs with kinder starts.

The honest other side: Brobbey and Xhaka are cheap, they start, and Ipswich then Fulham could produce something early. If your team is built and you need a £5.5m midfielder who never gets subbed on 60, Xhaka is a perfectly dull answer.

The call: avoid Sunderland assets for now. Hold Brobbey if you've got him — he's playable through the first two — but don't buy in, and don't touch the defence until the fixtures turn. Spend your budget where the goals live.