Sunderland FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Sunderland: buy the back end, ignore the front

Sunderland sit third in our projections for defensive strength — behind only the very best in the league — while their attack ranks 19th of 20. That's not a team, that's a wall with a rumour of a striker attached. And for once, that's exactly what a value shopper wants to hear.

The fixture list backs the wall up. Yes, Arsenal and a trip to the Etihad are in there, but BRE (A), BHA (H), BOU (A) and LEE (H) are the sort of games this defence has been built to shut out. Our model calls it a favourable run for clean sheets and a very tough one for goals — so any money you put into Sunderland belongs at the back, full stop.

The odd thing is who tops our list: Xhaka, a £5.5m midfielder. He's nailed, on free kicks and corners, hardly anyone owns him — fewer than 1 in 10 — and he projects around 4 points a week over the next six. That's not glamour, that's a fifth midfielder who never blanks the ugly way. He won't go massive; he also won't cost you a substitution headache. In this column, that's a compliment.

The purest value is Ballard at £5.0m and Roefs at £5.0m. Both start, both are owned by fewer than 1 in 10 managers, and both are riding a defence our projections rate among the meanest in the league through a kind run. Hume at £4.5m is the enabler play — cheaper, still nailed, on corners for good measure. If you need £1.0m back to fund a premium elsewhere, that's where it comes from. Reinildo at the same price is the deeper cut almost nobody owns.

The honest caveat: two of the first three fixtures are Brentford away and City away, so the clean sheets may arrive in a lump rather than a stream, and this is early-season evidence — a couple of starts each, not a season's proof. And whatever you do, don't touch the attack. Brobbey is the most-owned Sunderland asset at nearly 1 in 10 and projects the worst of the lot. That's a striker priced on hope, playing for the league's second-bluntest attack. Who's getting subbed off on 60? Probably him.

The call: buy Ballard or Roefs for the clean sheets, Xhaka if you need a midfield body who plays every week — and sell Brobbey if you were talked into him.