Nottingham Forest FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Forest: the value is at the front, and the front is cheap

Coventry at home, Ipswich away, Palace and Villa in between — Nottingham Forest's next six is about as kind a run as our model hands out, and they're carrying one of the league's better attacks into it (we rank them seventh for goal threat). The obvious question: buy in, and through whom?

Start where the model does. Gibbs-White at £7.9m is the head of the snake — penalties, free kicks, nailed on, and projected for a genuinely healthy return across the six, usually good for 5-6 with the fixtures giving him room to go big. About 1 in 10 own him, so he's not template yet. He's the one Forest asset priced for what he actually delivers rather than what he might.

The romance pick is Igor Jesus at £5.9m, and for once the romance survives contact with my spreadsheet. Hardly anyone has him — about 3 in 100 — he's starting, and a nailed forward under £6m who leads the line for a top-half attack is exactly the sort of enabler that funds a premium elsewhere. The honest caveat: two starts is two starts. We're working off a thin sample this early, and Forest have Wood and Delap in the building, so watch the teamsheets. But the price means you're not paying for the risk.

At the back, temper the enthusiasm. The clean-sheet run is only average — Spurs and Arsenal both visit the City Ground in this stretch, and Forest sit mid-pack defensively (13th by our numbers). That said, Neco Williams at £5.0m earns his keep the value way: nailed, on free kicks and corners, so he doesn't need shutouts to pay you. Aina at £4.5m is the pure enabler — a starting defender at the bottom of the price bracket is worth more than a rotating £5.5m one every day of the week. Murillo and Milenković are fine, but I wouldn't pay the extra 50p–£1 for defenders whose upside is the same clean sheet Aina gets cheaper.

The call: buy Gibbs-White as your Forest route in — he's the one who clears a real bar most weeks. If you want a second, make it Igor Jesus or Aina at the cheap end, not a mid-price defender. Get it done before Coventry at home, not after.