Manchester City FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

City's value is at the wrong end — the cheap end. Buy it there.

Our model makes Manchester City the meanest defence in the league right now — first of twenty — and hands them the kindest clean-sheet run on the board: after the trip to Anfield, it's Ipswich at home, Villa away, Brighton at home, Forest away, Fulham at home. The attack, by contrast, sits mid-pack at seventh. That's the whole story of this page: the shiny stuff is up front, but the value is at the back.

Haaland still tops our list, and fair enough — he takes the penalties, he's nailed, and about 7 in 10 managers own him, so at £15.6m he's less a pick than a tax you pay to stay level. If you own him, hold. If you don't, that's the fixture run you catch up in.

But the real decision here is the defence, because that's where the price buys you something. Guéhi at £6.0m is our top-projected City defender over the next six and only about 2 in 10 own him — a starter, in the league's best back line, on kind fixtures. Gvardiol is the more owned route and carries a bit more attacking sniff. And if you're funding a premium elsewhere, Rúben at £5.5m does nearly the same clean-sheet job with almost nobody on him — about 1 in 50. Donnarumma at £5.5m is the same argument in gloves. All four are nailed. That matters more than anything else on this page: a cheap City defender who plays every week is worth more than a mid-price midfielder who doesn't.

Which brings us to the caveat. Cherki is the romantic pick — free kicks, corners, £7.8m — but he's only started three of four, and I've seen enough Pep midfields to know who comes off on 60. Anderson is on corners too and starts every week at £6.3m, which is why our model quietly prefers him, but neither is the reason to buy into City. The attack is average by this team's standards; the defence is the best in the league.

One honest wrinkle: gameweek one of this run is Liverpool away, so don't expect the clean sheet party to start immediately. Bench tolerance required for a week.

The call: buy one City defender before Ipswich at home — Guéhi if the budget's there, Rúben if it isn't — and hold Haaland if you've got him. Leave Cherki to the romantics.