Liverpool FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Liverpool GW1–6: The Numbers Say Mid-Table, Not Champions

Here's the thing nobody wants to hear: our model has Liverpool's attack ranked 11th in the league over the opening six gameweeks, and their defence 12th. Not third. Not fifth. Eleventh and twelfth. Whatever you're paying for a Liverpool asset right now, you're partly paying for the badge.

The fixtures explain some of it. NEW (A) first up is a slog, and MCI (H) closes the window. In between there's kinder stuff — NFO (H), IPS (A), FUL (H), BOU (A) — but the model calls the clean-sheet picture a very tough run, which puts a line straight through Virgil at £6.5m. About 2 in 10 managers own him, he's good for roughly 22 points across the six, and a defender whose team ranks mid-pack for keeping them out is not what £6.5m should buy.

The pick, if you want one, is Szoboszlai at £7.0m. Around 28 points projected over the six — call it a steady 4-5 a week — and about 4 in 10 managers already have him, so he's more template than punt. Reliable, plays every week, doesn't cost the earth. My kind of footballer.

Isak at £9.0m actually projects highest of the lot, around 31 points, and fewer than 2 in 10 own him. He's a genuine option if you've got the budget — the honest caveat is you're paying £2.0m more for three or four extra points over six weeks, and £9.0m forwards need to haul, not tick along.

Further down: Gakpo (£7.0m, hardly anyone owns him, ~1 in 20) is decent value on paper but sits behind Szoboszlai in our pecking order for a reason — too many Liverpool attackers fighting over the same goals. And Wirtz at £7.5m is the shiny name with the weakest return of the five, roughly 19 points projected. That's the one everyone will buy and the one I'd leave alone. Ask yourself who gets subbed on 60 when it's 1-1.

The call: one Liverpool attacker maximum through this run — make it Szoboszlai at £7.0m, or Isak if the money's genuinely spare. No Liverpool defenders, and let someone else romance Wirtz.