Leeds United
Elland Road
Leeds United FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid
The call — LEEDS: THE DEFENCE NOBODY OWNS Our model has Leeds down as the second-meanest defence in the league over the opening six gameweeks. Not top half. Not "surprisingly solid for a promoted-feel side". Second. And barely anyone has noticed, because the players keeping those clean sheets are owned by almost nobody.
Start at the top, though, because the model's favourite Leeds pick is actually Calvert-Lewin. At £6.0m he's projected for around 19-20 points over the next six — call it a steady 3 with the odd goal week — and about 3 in 10 managers already have him. The attack itself is mid-pack, 12th in our numbers, and the fixtures don't do it many favours going forward: Forest and Arsenal away are not where you go hunting hauls. He's the sensible route into Leeds if you want the man on the end of things, but temper the dreams. This is a floor pick, not a captain pick.
The quieter value sits behind him. Trafford at £5.0m projects for roughly 23 points over six weeks — the best number in the whole Leeds squad — and hardly anyone owns him, well under 1 in 10. Rodon at £4.5m is good for about 20-21 points at the cheapest defender price that actually plays. That's the trade I like: guaranteed minutes, a defence our model rates second in the league, and a run that reads BRE (H), NEW (H), CRY (H) around the trickier trips. Three home games in the first five for a back line this stingy is exactly the sort of boring maths that wins mini-leagues in September.
The honest caveat: Forest away first up is no gimme, Brighton away is awkward, and Arsenal away in GW6 is a write-off week for clean sheets. You're buying five decent shouts out of six, not six.
Harry Wilson at £6.5m projects less than Rodon for £2m more, which tells you everything. Skip.
The call: get into this defence before the first clean sheet arrives and everyone else does the same. Rodon at £4.5m is the buy — and if you've got a keeper spot open, Trafford is the best fiver on the market.