João Pedro
VS
Foden
João Pedro Vs Foden: The Better FPL Pick
The call — João Pedro or Foden? My numbers make this less close than the ownership suggests Here's the gap that jumps off my spreadsheet: barely 1 in 20 managers own Phil Foden, while João Pedro sits in roughly 7 in 10 squads — and yet my projections have Foden scoring nearly ten points more over the next six gameweeks. That's not a…
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One squad, picked before a ball was kicked and run for six gameweeks on three transfers — no hits taken. Scored on FPL’s own results.
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The raw shape of it: Foden at £7.0m, projected for around 47 points across the next six — call it a shade under 8 a week. João Pedro at £7.6m, projected for around 38 — closer to 6 a week. So the cheaper player, from the stronger attack, is expected to outscore the more expensive one by a comfortable margin. On his day Foden goes massive too; when City click at home he's the sort of player who returns double figures without breaking sweat.
Both have lovely runs, to be fair. João Pedro gets ARS (A), HUL (H), BRE (A), BOU (H), EVE (A) and TOT (H) — plenty of winnable games in there, and he's Chelsea's frontman. Foden gets COV (H), MUN (A), SUN (H), LIV (A), IPS (H) and AVL (A) — Coventry, Sunderland and Ipswich at the Etihad is about as friendly as home fixtures get.
Now the honest bit. The reason Foden is owned by hardly anyone is the reason he's always a leap of faith: minutes at City are never guaranteed, and Anfield and Old Trafford are the two games where he's most likely to be managed or blanked. João Pedro is the safer body — a nailed forward that most of your mini-league already has, which means owning him mostly just protects your rank rather than building it.
But that's exactly the case for Foden. He's 60p cheaper, projected higher, and owned by almost nobody. If he does what my numbers expect, that's a genuine rank-climber; João Pedro doing well just keeps you level with the crowd. The rotation worry is real, but the fixture run is soft enough that even losing one start still leaves him ahead on my projections.
The call: buy Foden over João Pedro. If you already own João Pedro and your team has bigger fires, he's a hold — but with a free transfer and this choice in front of you, Foden is my pick, and it isn't close.