Hull City FPL: Who To Own, Captain And Avoid

Hull: the value's at the back — and only at the back

Here's the split that decides everything about Hull right now: our model has their fixtures down as a very tough run for the attack and a favourable one for clean sheets. Same six games, two different verdicts. Everton, Brentford, Ipswich and Brighton all come to the MKM, with Fulham and Arsenal away — winnable-looking on paper for a defence we rank mid-table for meanness, but not the sort of run where a Championship-priced forward starts filling his boots.

So spend your money at the right end. The pick of the lot is Egan — top of our list, cheapest route into the backline that actually matters, and hardly weighing on the template at about 1 in 10 owned. He won't go massive on his day, because £4.1m centre-halves don't; what he does is clear the going rate for a starting defender most weeks, which is the whole job at that price. Ajayi is far more popular, but our model ranks him behind Egan — the crowd bought the name on the teamsheet, not the better value. Giles at £4.0m is the sneaky one: he's on free kicks and corners, which is more attacking involvement than any four-oh defender has a right to, and almost nobody owns him.

The honest caveat, and it's a real one: nobody in this squad is nailed. Every player on the page has started five games, which is encouraging, but there's no man you'd swear on. That's the tax on shopping at Hull — you're buying a probable starter, not a certain one. One benching from Egan or Giles and the call changes.

Up front, leave it. McBurnie has the penalties, but a very tough attacking run is exactly when you don't pay £5.5m for a striker in the league's twelfth-best attack. The one attacking exception is Belloumi — top of the midfield list, on set pieces, and owned by almost nobody. As a fifth midfielder who plays, he's honest money.

The call: buy the defence — Egan first, Giles if you're funding a premium elsewhere — take Belloumi if you need a cheap fifth mid, and don't touch the forwards until the fixtures turn.